trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 17 | -17.0% | -24.9% | 53% | 35% | -11.5% |
| ≤30d | 17 | -17.0% | -24.9% | 53% | 35% | -11.5% |
| ≤90d | 17 | -17.0% | -24.9% | 53% | 35% | -11.5% |
| all | 188 | -4.1% | -13.2% | 52% | 42% | -17.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.2% | 42% | -17.3% |
| 10% | -21.5% | 35% | -25.2% |
| 15% | -29.1% | 29% | -32.4% |
| 20% | -36.1% | 23% | -39.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 6¢ | $10 | $11 | +$1 (+7%) |
| Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 28¢ | 28¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $10 | $9 | −$1 (-8%) |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+4%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-6%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 13¢ | $5 | $4 | −$1 (-22%) |
| Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $3 | $2 | −$1 (-25%) |
| Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 23¢ | 23¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $3 | $2 | −$1 (-41%) |
| Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 31¢ | 34¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+11%) |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 3¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 | Jun 17 | $5 | +$1 | +19% |
| Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? | Jun 17 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 16 | $2 | +$1 | +26% |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 16 | $3 | +$1 | +24% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 15 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? | Jun 15 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? | Jun 15 | $5 | +$13 | +250% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $2 | −$2 | -98% |
| Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $2 | −$2 | -98% |
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $3 | +$5 | +172% |
| Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $3 | −$3 | -98% |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $5 | −$5 | -97% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Thunder | Jun 11 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Rockets vs. Cavaliers | Jun 11 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| Hornets vs. Pacers | Jun 11 | $10 | $0 | +3% |
| Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Jun 11 | $10 | +$1 | +15% |
| Lakers vs. Jazz | Nov 24 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | Nov 24 | $20 | $0 | +2% |
| Kings vs. Thunder | Nov 20 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Raptors vs. 76ers | Nov 20 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Warriors vs. Heat | Nov 20 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Wizards vs. Timberwolves | Nov 20 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? | Nov 19 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | Nov 19 | $60 | −$60 | -100% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | Nov 17 | $1 | +$1 | +75% |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? | Nov 10 | $1 | $0 | +48% |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? | Nov 10 | $1 | +$1 | +144% |
| Will Elon Musk’s $1T Tesla pay deal pass? | Nov 07 | $10 | +$1 | +9% |
| Suns vs. Warriors | Nov 05 | $50 | +$1 | +2% |
| Kings vs. Nuggets | Nov 04 | $15 | +$1 | +4% |
| Lakers vs. Trail Blazers | Nov 04 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Pistons vs. Grizzlies | Nov 04 | $5 | $0 | +4% |
| Bucks vs. Pacers | Nov 04 | $5 | $0 | +6% |
| Timberwolves vs. Nets | Nov 04 | $10 | +$1 | +7% |
| Mavericks vs. Rockets | Nov 04 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Oct 29 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? | Oct 27 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30? | Oct 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the Government shutdown end October 19-22? | Oct 15 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the Government shutdown end October 15-18 | Oct 14 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the Government shutdown end before October 15? | Oct 14 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? | Oct 14 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? | Oct 14 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Lakers vs. Timberwolves | May 06 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Grizzlies vs. Warriors | Apr 16 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Celtics vs. Knicks | Apr 10 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Warriors vs. Suns | Apr 10 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Hornets vs. Raptors | Apr 10 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | Apr 10 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |