Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:41:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde60…462f crypto 207 markets active 14h ago coverage 342d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$66 (-10%) realized −$69 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate28%53W / 133L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$58
other 28% +$2
politics 6% −$3
world 4% −$14
sports 1% +$6
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.3% -8.3% 40% 40% -7.4%
≤30d 13 +2.2% -7.5% 46% 46% -6.8%
≤90d 13 +2.2% -7.5% 46% 46% -6.8%
all 186 -3.9% -13.0% 28% 24% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 24% -22.7%
10% -21.3% 20% -30.1%
15% -28.9% 19% -36.9%
20% -35.9% 16% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

342d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses53 / 133
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions21
Markets (closed)186 / 207
History coverage342d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 78¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+10%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 36¢ 33¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 92¢ $7 $9 +$3 (+41%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 67¢ 55¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-19%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-29%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 58¢ 64¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+11%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 127 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$8 +76%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$11 +216%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +90%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 14 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 05 $5 +$2 +36%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? May 27 $5 +$2 +34%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $5 −$3 -55%
Will the price of Solana be between $130 and $140 on November 20? Dec 31 $1 +$2 +156%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on November 2 Nov 20 $2 $0 +3%
Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on November 18? Nov 18 $1 +$1 +89%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on November 2 Nov 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on November 2 Nov 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on November 19? Nov 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on November 21? Nov 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on November 21? Nov 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $130 and $140 on November 21? Nov 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on November 20? Nov 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on November 20? Nov 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on November 2 Nov 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on November 2 Nov 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on November 17? Nov 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on November 17? Nov 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on November 19? Nov 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on November 18? Nov 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on November Nov 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100,000 and $102,000 on November Nov 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on November Nov 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on November 1 Nov 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104,000 and $106,000 on November Nov 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on November Nov 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100,000 and $102,000 on November Nov 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on November Nov 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on November 2 Nov 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $120,000 and $122,000 on October Oct 11 $1 +$4 +354%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $122,000 and $124,000 on October Oct 09 $1 +$2 +212%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $122,000 and $124,000 on October Oct 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118,000 and $120,000 on October Oct 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $120,000 and $122,000 on October Oct 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118,000 and $120,000 on October Oct 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on October Sep 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on October Sep 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104,000 and $106,000 on October Sep 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104,000 on October 6? Sep 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on October Sep 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 14h
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 92¢ $5 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 37h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 38h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 41h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 44h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 44h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $5 2d
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 57¢ $9 2d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 70¢ $10 2d
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 60¢ $10 2d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 71¢ $10 2d
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 65¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.21 · official $188.21 (match) · 469 history records