Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:24:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde60…cfb4 weather 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$93 (-2%) realized −$93 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%77W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 42% +$5
crypto 28% +$2
other 27% −$101
culture 3% $0
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 8 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 21 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 79 -0.3% -9.8% 97% 1% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 1% -11.3%
10% -18.5% 1% -19.8%
15% -26.3% 1% -27.6%
20% -33.6% 1% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$53 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses77 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage253d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 19? Jun 19 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 17 Jun 18 $79 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 8? Jun 08 $59 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 7? Jun 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 42°C on June 2? Jun 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 43°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on May 29? May 30 $79 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 26? May 27 $79 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on May 14? May 14 $79 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on May 9? May 09 $79 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 2? May 08 $79 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or below on April 27? Apr 29 $79 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 26 $79 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on April 21? Apr 23 $79 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C or below on April 19? Apr 20 $78 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on April 15? Apr 18 $78 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $78 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 37°F or below on April 10? Apr 12 $78 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 41°F or below on Apri Apr 09 $78 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 March 23-29? Apr 06 $78 $0 +0%
Will "Unicorn Academy: Secrets Revealed" be the top US Netflix show th Mar 29 $78 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on March 17? Mar 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on March 17? Mar 20 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 7? Mar 16 $77 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 4? Mar 08 $77 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on February 26? Mar 04 $77 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 25 $77 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 14? Feb 22 $77 $0 +0%
Will "Is It Cake? Valentines" be the top global Netflix show this week Feb 14 $77 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $2.30 on January 28? Jan 29 $77 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on January 22? Jan 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 21? Jan 27 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on Ja Jan 20 $77 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 09 $104 −$104 -100%
Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? ( Jan 09 $51 $0 +0%
Will "Dave Chappelle: The Unstoppable" be the top US Netflix show this Jan 09 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on December 29? Dec 30 $132 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on December 11? Dec 29 $61 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on December 12? Dec 29 $72 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025? Dec 10 $61 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 27-28°F on De Dec 10 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on December 5? Dec 08 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 45°F or higher on Dec Dec 08 $72 $0 +0%
Will "Stranger Things: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this w Dec 04 $36 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 04 $45 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? Dec 04 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 47°F or higher on Nov Dec 01 $81 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 29 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 59°F or higher on November 2 Nov 29 $70 +$1 +1%
Will "A Merry Little Ex-Mas" be the top global Netflix movie this week Nov 28 $64 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $80 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $80 29h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 100¢ $79 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $19 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $40 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $20 15d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 42°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $43 19d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 43°C or higher on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $36 19d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $79 23d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $79 26d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $79 38d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $79 42d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 2? BUY No 100¢ $79 51d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or below on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $79 55d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $79 58d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $79 61d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C or below on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $78 63d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $78 67d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $78 69d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 37°F or below on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $78 72d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 41°F or below on Apri BUY No 100¢ $78 75d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 March 23-29? BUY No 100¢ $78 83d
Will "Unicorn Academy: Secrets Revealed" be the top US Netflix show th BUY No 100¢ $78 92d
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on March 17? BUY No 100¢ $17 96d
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on March 17? BUY No 100¢ $61 96d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 7? BUY No 100¢ $77 104d
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 4? BUY No 100¢ $77 108d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on February 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $77 115d
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 BUY No 100¢ $77 118d
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 14? BUY No 100¢ $77 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.92 · official $79.92 (match) · 158 history records