Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:40:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DE 0xde5d…ca66 sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$68 (+2%) realized +$126 · open −$58
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%8W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day32.7pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$158
7 days+$153
14 days+$58
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% +$23
sports 40% +$76
other 12% −$98
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -3.1% -12.3% 47% 41% +2.2%
≤30d 20 -3.3% -12.5% 40% 35% -7.5%
≤90d 20 -3.3% -12.5% 40% 35% -7.5%
all 20 -3.3% -12.5% 40% 35% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 35% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 25% -16.4%
15% -28.5% 20% -24.4%
20% -35.5% 15% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$21 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$126
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses8 / 12
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions2
Markets (closed)20 / 22
History coverage14d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day32.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Yes $27 $15 −$12 (-44%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Saoirse Breen vs Lana Virc Lana Virc 33¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva Jun 17 $31 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $79 +$77 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $78 +$27 +35%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo Jun 17 $76 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $153 +$24 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$23 -73%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $38 +$66 +172%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $123 +$70 +57%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $19 −$2 -12%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $71 +$30 +42%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $105 −$6 -5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $92 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $178 −$12 -7%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $700 −$37 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $715 −$58 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Saoirse Breen vs Lana Virc BUY Lana Virc 33¢ $47 39m
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva SELL Anja Stankovic 25¢ $37 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $78 1h
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva BUY Anja Stankovic 20¢ $31 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo SELL Xi Luo 50¢ $73 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo BUY Xi Luo 51¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $93 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $64 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $61 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $32 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $69 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $38 5h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 87¢ $130 6h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 61¢ $93 7h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 7h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $0 7h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 83¢ $101 7h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 39¢ $64 7h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 57¢ $71 7h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 18¢ $31 7h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $30 8h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 18h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 18h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 18h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 18h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 19h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.97 · official $14.97 (match) · 462 history records