Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:06:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DE 0xde53…e5be sports 1157 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 74d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,308 (-11%) realized −$8,346 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%625W / 528L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day30.7pace
Fees−$886est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 74d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$2,708
other 2% +$95
world 0% −$221
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -12.5% -20.8% 48% 45% -15.6%
≤30d 299 -7.6% -16.4% 49% 47% -12.5%
≤90d 1153 +5.4% -4.7% 54% 52% -6.4%
all 1153 +5.4% -4.7% 54% 52% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.7% 52% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -13.8% 45% -15.3%
15% -22.1% 39% -23.5%
20% -29.7% 31% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$51 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$173
Realized−$8,346
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses625 / 528
Est. fees paid−$886
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1153 / 1157
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$63
Trades / day30.7
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ 100¢ $52 $102 +$50 (+96%)
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Season KRÜ Spark 41¢ 40¢ $49 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs SPARTA 36¢ 30¢ $26 $22 −$4 (-15%)
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group C Alpha Gaming 38¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $64 +$36 +56%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea Jun 16 $28 +$25 +91%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $61 +$69 +114%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Jun 16 $11 +$5 +45%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $42 +$39 +93%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $65 +$35 +55%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 16 $58 −$58 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $99 −$99 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 16 $67 −$67 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $55 +$96 +173%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $113 +$7 +6%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $71 −$71 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $38 +$42 +113%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $90 +$31 +34%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $108 +$12 +11%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $56 +$46 +83%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 14 $52 −$1 -2%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G Jun 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $69 −$69 -100%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 14 $55 −$55 -100%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 12 $103 +$18 +17%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $88 +$13 +14%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $91 +$10 +11%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $57 +$65 +113%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $105 +$46 +44%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $88 +$44 +50%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 12 $47 −$47 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 12 $78 −$78 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $96 +$54 +56%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $129 +$52 +40%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $35 +$119 +344%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $75 +$26 +34%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $29 +$22 +76%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 11 $43 +$69 +158%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 11 $112 +$8 +7%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 11 $20 +$48 +242%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 36¢ $26 1h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular BUY KRÜ Spark 41¢ $8 1h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular BUY KRÜ Spark 41¢ $41 2h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Gaming 38¢ $8 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 88¢ $9 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 88¢ $13 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 88¢ $22 3h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 64¢ $49 7h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 64¢ $15 7h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $79 7h
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le BUY Falcons Esport 46¢ $17 23h
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea BUY Virtus.pro 52¢ $28 23h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European BUY KOLESIE 69¢ $11 23h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 46¢ $4 27h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 46¢ $57 27h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY TDK 64¢ $65 27h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Refuser 37¢ $15 30h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 51¢ $42 31h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $20 46h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Galions 36¢ $0 46h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Galions 36¢ $36 46h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Galions 37¢ $19 46h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 42¢ $21 2d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas BUY KT Rolster Challengers 94¢ $113 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 39¢ $18 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 39¢ $1 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Game Master 41¢ $41 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $80 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 39¢ $13 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $45 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.70 · official $171.99 (match) · 3500 history records