Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde4f…2cff crypto 846 markets active 6d ago coverage 65d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$802 (-11%) realized −$802 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate61%517W / 329L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day39.6pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$14
14 days−$21
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$340
other 2% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -4.3% -13.4% 68% 68% -13.9%
≤30d 265 -1.9% -11.3% 85% 32% -10.4%
≤90d 846 -15.0% -23.1% 61% 29% -13.8%
all 846 -15.0% -23.1% 61% 29% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.1% 29% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -30.4% 25% -22.1%
15% -37.2% 17% -29.6%
20% -43.3% 11% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$802
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses517 / 329
Open positions0
Markets (closed)846 / 846
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day39.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 846 Trades
no open positions (41 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records