Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:32:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DE
0xde4c…76a5
sports · 8 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$1 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$39
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 48¢ 52¢ $21 $23 +$2 (+9%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 42¢ 42¢ $17 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $16 +$15 +93%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $21 +$9 +42%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $36 +$31 +86%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 42¢ $17 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 51¢ $16 19h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $21 26h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 53¢ $36 27h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 46¢ $16 28h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 48¢ $21 46h
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 43¢ $19 47h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 42¢ $21 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -13.2% -21.5% 50% 50% -11.5%
≤30d 6 -13.2% -21.5% 50% 50% -11.5%
≤90d 6 -13.2% -21.5% 50% 50% -11.5%
all 6 -13.2% -21.5% 50% 50% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 50% -11.5%
10% -29.0% 50% -19.9%
15% -35.8% 50% -27.7%
20% -42.1% 33% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.21 · official $39.21 (match) · 14 history records