Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:31:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DE 0xde45…8597 other 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 155d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$762 (-1%) realized −$762 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%30W / 38L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,512per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$887est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 155d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$6,277
other 47% +$8,036
politics 0% −$248
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -5.1% -14.1% 42% 42% -19.0%
≤30d 50 +20.3% +8.8% 48% 48% -1.9%
≤90d 58 +17.3% +6.1% 47% 47% -3.8%
all 68 +10.4% -0.2% 44% 44% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.2% 44% -7.7%
10% -9.7% 43% -16.6%
15% -18.4% 43% -24.6%
20% -26.4% 40% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$1,671) neutral
Persistence
early +29% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,703 vs −$1,305 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$762
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses30 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$887
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage155d
Avg bet$1,512
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $1,020 −$1,000 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,539 +$3,263 +128%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $1,020 +$995 +98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $1,329 +$1,188 +89%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $8,486 −$2,090 -25%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $2,641 +$2,662 +101%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $2,725 −$103 -4%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $5,084 −$3,676 -72%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $942 +$1,554 +165%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $2,895 +$4,043 +140%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,724 −$1,704 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $686 +$1,039 +152%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,027 −$370 -36%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $8,693 −$8,542 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,028 −$2,000 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $1,015 +$946 +93%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2,032 −$2,000 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,013 +$644 +64%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 19 $1,021 −$1,000 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3,035 +$1,883 +62%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,014 +$816 +80%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,015 −$1,000 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1,013 +$741 +73%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $512 −$500 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 $0 -5%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $2,028 +$1,676 +83%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,027 +$939 +46%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $510 −$500 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,019 −$880 -86%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,037 +$1,318 +43%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,021 −$1,000 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,022 +$2,581 +252%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $986 −$970 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,023 +$2,631 +257%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,013 +$712 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,023 −$1,000 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1,016 +$1,112 +109%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,019 +$1,759 +172%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $1,026 +$6,666 +650%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 11 $976 +$1,495 +153%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $1,692 −$1,671 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,014 +$809 +80%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $964 +$897 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 32¢ $1,020 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 91¢ $5,801 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 65¢ $2,015 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 32¢ $1,020 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $2,539 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 24¢ $5 23h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,517 23h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1,329 23h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5,303 23h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2,641 26h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) SELL Egypt 36¢ $2,622 26h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 36¢ $2,725 26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 49¢ $5,076 26h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 13¢ $1,408 26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $6,396 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 46¢ $2,883 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 46¢ $527 28h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 44¢ $5,084 29h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 86¢ $2,496 29h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $942 31h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $2,895 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $1,724 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,725 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $686 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $657 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $8,693 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $2,028 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2,032 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 93¢ $1,657 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $1,015 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 129 history records