Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:58:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DE
0xde45…9330
other · 254 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$92 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$92 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$58
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 238
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)253 / 254
History coverage134d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 1 History 253 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$14
14 days−$22
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $185 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $375 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $337 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $200 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $321 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $262 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $293 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $121 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $271 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $450 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $150 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $445 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $660 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $381 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $323 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $575 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $304 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $62 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $269 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $62 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $275 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $597 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $156 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $63 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $134 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $365 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 01 $317 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 31 $231 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $64 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 31 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $402 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 30 $65 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $826 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? May 29 $323 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 29 $613 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 29 $275 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $139 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $636 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $66 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 27 $144 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $496 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 27 $156 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 45% −$44
sports 24% −$18
politics 8% −$8
economics 7% −$8
culture 6% −$5
world 5% −$2
crypto 5% −$4
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 1h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 2h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 3h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $58 5h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $58 7h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 8h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 9h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 15h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 17h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 18h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 20h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $58 21h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $58 23h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 25h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 26h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 28h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 30h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 31h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 33h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $2 37h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $57 38h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $59 39h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 42h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 44h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 45h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 46h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 253 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.90 · official $57.90 (match) · 1385 history records