Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:21:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde44…92ec other 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 371d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-2%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%8W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$2
world 21% $0
politics 18% −$5
crypto 9% $0
economics 4% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 6 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 0% -10.2%
all 24 -4.0% -13.2% 33% 0% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 0% -11.3%
10% -21.5% 0% -19.8%
15% -29.1% 0% -27.6%
20% -36.0% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

371d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses8 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage371d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $13 $0 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 30 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $3 $0 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $36 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will Jaime Dunn win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 23 $17 $0 +1%
Will María Galindo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jun 22 $17 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trawlerman win the 2025 Ascot Gold Cup? Jun 21 $17 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jun 19 $17 $0 +1%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 18 $17 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? Jun 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 17 $17 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 15 $9 −$2 -24%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Cătălin Predoiu? Jun 12 $7 −$5 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $13 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $13 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $36 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $36 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $1 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $4 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $5 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $33 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $33 17d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $3 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $4 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $32 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $7 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 20d
Will Jaime Dunn win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $5 358d
Will Jaime Dunn win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $12 358d
Will Jaime Dunn win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $17 359d
Will María Galindo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $17 359d
Will María Galindo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $17 360d
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the SELL No 99¢ $17 360d
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the BUY No 99¢ $17 361d
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $17 361d
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $17 361d
Will Trawlerman win the 2025 Ascot Gold Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $17 363d
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? SELL No 96¢ $6 363d
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? SELL No 96¢ $12 363d
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? BUY No 95¢ $17 363d
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? SELL No 99¢ $17 363d
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? BUY No 99¢ $17 364d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.73 · official $35.73 (match) · 77 history records