Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:02:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde44…84b7 crypto 1266 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (116 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$939 (-5%) realized −$941 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%670W / 588L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day115.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4,664
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (116 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 522 -47.1% -52.1% 29% 29% -29.4%
≤30d 1258 -1.1% -10.6% 53% 53% +8.0%
≤90d 1258 -1.1% -10.6% 53% 53% +8.0%
all 1258 -1.1% -10.6% 53% 53% +8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover115.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 53% +8.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 53% -2.3%
15% -26.9% 52% -11.8%
20% -34.1% 48% -20.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$9 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$941
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses670 / 588
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1258 / 1266
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day115.8
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1258 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Up 36¢ 46¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 28 $43 −$43 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $11 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $0 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $9 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.09 · official $8.44 (match) · 3500 history records