Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:38:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde41…58bd sports 82 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$218 (+1%) realized +$218 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate21%17W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$357est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days+$287
14 days+$100
30 days+$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$106
other 12% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +1.0% -8.6% 15% 5% -6.2%
≤30d 82 -0.3% -9.8% 21% 2% -9.0%
≤90d 82 -0.3% -9.8% 21% 2% -9.0%
all 82 -0.3% -9.8% 21% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 2% -9.0%
10% -18.4% 2% -17.7%
15% -26.3% 2% -25.7%
20% -33.5% 1% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$6 · ×4.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$218
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses17 / 65
Est. fees paid−$357
Open positions0
Markets (closed)82 / 82
History coverage22d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 82 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $310 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $40 −$1 -2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $39 −$1 -3%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $82 −$2 -2%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $265 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $45 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 19 $425 −$2 -0%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 19 $356 −$1 -0%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 19 $37 −$1 -2%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $74 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $234 −$1 -0%
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $290 −$4 -1%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Neither team to score first? Jun 19 $174 $0 -0%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $41 −$1 -2%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 19 $200 −$4 -2%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $237 −$2 -1%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $120 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 19 $285 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $204 −$9 -4%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 18 $125 −$27 -22%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 18 $10 $0 -1%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $37 $0 -0%
Canada vs. Qatar: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $478 −$5 -1%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $240 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 17 $150 −$2 -1%
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals Jun 17 $380 −$3 -1%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $260 −$14 -5%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $11 $0 -2%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $450 −$2 -0%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $170 −$8 -5%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $85 +$7 +9%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $215 $0 -0%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $250 −$4 -2%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $22 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Jun 15 $285 +$6 +2%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 15 $31 −$13 -41%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 14 $320 −$15 -5%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $260 +$239 +92%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $340 +$159 +47%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $245 −$4 -2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $5 $0 -0%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 13 $100 −$7 -7%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $25 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $405 −$3 -1%
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $265 −$9 -3%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $148 −$2 -1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $14 $0 -2%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $340 −$3 -1%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $260 −$19 -7%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $310 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 SELL Under 63¢ $237 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) SELL Spirit 33¢ $39 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 51¢ $38 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 SELL Under 62¢ $74 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $310 5h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $39 8h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Spirit 33¢ $40 9h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) SELL FURIA 30¢ $80 12h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY FURIA 30¢ $82 12h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL No 53¢ $265 15h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $265 16h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 9¢ $40 16h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $45 16h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL No 85¢ $423 17h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY No 85¢ $425 17h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? SELL No 94¢ $248 20h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? SELL No 94¢ $107 21h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 94¢ $356 21h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 21h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? SELL Yes 7¢ $10 21h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? SELL Yes 7¢ $19 21h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 7¢ $37 21h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 SELL Under 94¢ $69 25h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? SELL No 94¢ $234 25h
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? SELL No 58¢ $286 25h
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? BUY No 58¢ $290 25h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Neither team to score first? SELL No 98¢ $173 26h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Neither team to score first? BUY No 98¢ $174 26h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY No 94¢ $234 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 323 history records