Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:44:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde40…8d66 other 258 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 243L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$17
14 days−$33
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$46
sports 22% −$20
politics 8% −$9
crypto 7% −$5
culture 5% −$6
economics 4% −$5
world 3% −$2
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 76 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 179 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 258 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 243
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)258 / 258
History coverage134d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 258 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $262 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $195 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $333 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $236 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $292 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $588 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $367 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $432 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $923 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $303 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $327 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $290 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $404 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $158 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 13 $151 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $422 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $529 −$2 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $170 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $458 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $414 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $668 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $191 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $259 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $607 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $837 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $270 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 09 $323 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $223 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 08 $886 −$3 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $542 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $366 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $197 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $67 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $295 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $171 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $366 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $269 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $311 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $57 3h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $57 4h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $57 5h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $57 10h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $57 11h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 13h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 14h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 16h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 17h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 20h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 22h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 38h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 39h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $57 44h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $58 45h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $42 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $15 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $58 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1426 history records