Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:50:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

DE 0xde3f…b3b6 other 6 markets active 1d ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$4 (+8%) realized +$4 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip

Net edge+4%after slip

Net WR80%break-even

Win rate80%4W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$8per market

Trades / day6.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +80%

net ROI/market (all)+8.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+20.1%	+8.6%	80%	80%	+0.0%
≤30d	5	+20.1%	+8.6%	80%	80%	+0.0%
≤90d	5	+20.1%	+8.6%	80%	80%	+0.0%
all	5	+20.1%	+8.6%	80%	80%	+0.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+8.6%	80%	+0.0%
10%	-1.8%	80%	-9.5%
15%	-11.3%	80%	-18.3%
20%	-20.0%	20%	-26.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 37% · top 2 66% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +11% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +20% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.42 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$10

Realized+$4

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)80%

Wins / losses4 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$8

Trades / day6.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	64¢	64¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$10	+$4	+38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$7	+$5	+73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$10	+$4	+42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$2	+$1	+48%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$7	27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$10	27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$2	2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	72¢	$10	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	64¢	$10	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	70¢	$10	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.92 · official $9.92 (match) · 10 history records