Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:31:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde3e…8d2b crypto 362 markets active 23h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$86 (-16%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%185W / 177L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -20.8% -28.3% 27% 9% -24.5%
≤30d 22 -29.8% -36.4% 41% 14% -23.3%
≤90d 22 -29.8% -36.4% 41% 14% -23.3%
all 362 -1.6% -11.0% 51% 49% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 49% -24.4%
10% -19.5% 49% -31.6%
15% -27.3% 42% -38.2%
20% -34.4% 33% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses185 / 177
Open positions0
Markets (closed)362 / 362
History coverage125d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 362 Trades
no open positions (167 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 25 $12 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 25 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 12 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 12 $21 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 10 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 10 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 10 $1 +$1 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 10 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Feb 23 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Feb 23 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Feb 23 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Feb 23 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Feb 23 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Feb 23 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Feb 23 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Feb 23 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Feb 23 $1 +$1 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Feb 23 $1 +$2 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Feb 23 $1 +$2 +182%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 738 history records