Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:23:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde3d…6b1f sports 308 markets active 2h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$539 (-2%) realized −$435 · open −$104
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%116W / 189L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$325est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$236
7 days−$111
14 days−$469
30 days−$679
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$1,511
other 40% +$300
crypto 14% −$378
finance 0% +$104
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +15.6% +4.6% 39% 35% -14.1%
≤30d 119 +14.0% +3.1% 42% 39% -14.5%
≤90d 305 +0.7% -8.9% 38% 35% -14.8%
all 305 +0.7% -8.9% 38% 35% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 35% -14.8%
10% -17.6% 30% -23.0%
15% -25.5% 27% -30.4%
20% -32.8% 22% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$52 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$202
Realized−$435
Unrealized−$104
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses116 / 189
Est. fees paid−$325
Open positions3
Markets (closed)305 / 308
History coverage54d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 305 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $154 $97 −$58 (-37%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $100 $61 −$39 (-39%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $52 $45 −$7 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 145 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $145 −$141 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $108 −$1 -1%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 21 $96 −$94 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Jun 20 $141 −$136 -96%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $234 +$136 +58%
Valencia vs. Barcelona Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $116 +$76 +65%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $102 +$9 +9%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $103 −$77 -75%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$29 +29%
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv Jun 18 $102 +$157 +154%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$7 -13%
Spread: Maccabi Tel-Aviv (-5.5) Jun 18 $94 −$93 -98%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Jun 18 $32 +$26 +80%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $102 −$47 -46%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $171 +$449 +262%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -97%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv Jun 16 $120 −$117 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $126 −$124 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 +$157 +153%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $105 −$103 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 14 $163 −$159 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $89 −$88 -98%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $103 −$13 -13%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $71 −$70 -98%
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Jerusalem Jun 11 $23 −$23 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $88 −$86 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 11 $71 +$365 +517%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 09 $49 −$48 -97%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $51 −$3 -5%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 09 $134 −$131 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $17 −$17 -97%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 04 $151 −$142 -94%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 04 $172 −$170 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $105 +$235 +224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Jun 04 $11 −$6 -54%
Spread: Spurs (-21.5) Jun 03 $87 −$84 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $204 −$200 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $202 −$200 -99%
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics Jun 03 $407 −$76 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 02 $103 +$62 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 02 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 02 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Romania win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $123 −$120 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $173 −$170 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $38 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $40 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $106 16h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 47¢ $107 19h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 46¢ $108 20h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $96 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Down 47¢ $141 45h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 45h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $158 45h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 45h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $212 45h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $203 46h
Valencia vs. Barcelona BUY Barcelona 38¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 3¢ $11 3d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Ben Shelton 50¢ $110 3d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 45¢ $102 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? SELL Down 52¢ $179 3d
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada 89¢ $9 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 2¢ $26 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 28¢ $105 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 85¢ $130 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 4d
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv SELL Maccabi Tel-Aviv 71¢ $259 4d
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv BUY Maccabi Tel-Aviv 27¢ $102 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $101 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 10¢ $42 4d
Spread: Maccabi Tel-Aviv (-5.5) BUY Maccabi Tel-Aviv 40¢ $94 4d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $58 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.43 · official $202.43 (match) · 665 history records