Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:12:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde3b…d996 crypto 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$115 (-3%) realized −$114 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate65%31W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$91
other 19% +$41
sports 8% −$28
tech 6% +$1
weather 4% $0
world 1% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 48 +5.0% -5.0% 65% 23% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 23% -12.7%
10% -14.1% 21% -21.1%
15% -22.4% 19% -28.7%
20% -30.0% 17% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$37 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized−$114
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses31 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage243d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? No 55¢ 55¢ $116 $114 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 1 above $415? Jun 28 $122 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 12? Jun 04 $122 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 11 $122 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $140-$150 on the final day of trading of Apr 30 $122 $0 +0%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 16 $122 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in April 2026? Apr 10 $122 $0 +0%
Suns vs. Trail Blazers Mar 28 $3 +$12 +393%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 28 $112 −$112 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Mar 28 $95 −$45 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Mar 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Mar 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Valorant: Team Liquid Brazil vs G2 Gozen (BO3) Mar 28 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 28 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 28 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 28 $120 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 16 $90 −$46 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 16 $33 +$77 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 16 $100 +$94 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Mar 16 $218 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 16 $18 +$22 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 16 $100 +$40 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 16 $155 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Mar 14 $17 +$80 +468%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 14 $25 +$75 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Mar 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Fabric FDV above $600M one day after launch? Mar 07 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Feb 28 $51 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Feb 28 $69 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Feb 28 $55 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Feb 28 $62 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Feb 28 $46 +$11 +25%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on February 25? Feb 28 $45 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7AM ET Feb 25 $44 $0 +1%
Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13? Feb 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026 Feb 08 $44 $0 +0%
North Korea missile launch by January 31? Feb 04 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 06 $45 $0 +1%
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 22 $6 −$5 -75%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 November 24-30? Dec 01 $45 $0 +0%
Canucks vs. Hurricanes Nov 24 $79 +$41 +52%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 10 $70 +$40 +58%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 09 $289 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 55¢ $117 1h
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 1 above $415? BUY No 100¢ $122 23d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $122 48d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $122 59d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $140-$150 on the final day of trading of BUY No 100¢ $122 72d
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 100¢ $5 78d
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 100¢ $12 78d
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 100¢ $105 78d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $122 91d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $120 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $44 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $17 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $8 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $9 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $8 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $15 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.45 · official $114.45 (match) · 242 history records