Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:56:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DE
0xde39…f3b5
other · 499 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$52 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$51 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$138
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses203 / 286
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions10
Markets (closed)489 / 499
History coverage134d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 10 History 489 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$13
14 days−$32
30 days−$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 66¢ 72¢ $33 $36 +$3 (+10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 84¢ 91¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $26 $26 −$1 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 45¢ 38¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+69%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 17¢ 7¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-58%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Under 54¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 2? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's video get between 62 and 64 million views on day 3? Yes 70¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 8? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 3? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $6 +$2 +32%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$3 +45%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 +$3 +138%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 +$3 +150%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $40 −$26 -64%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $18 +$2 +13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $18 +$2 +13%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $8 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $4 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $18 +$21 +119%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $142 −$2 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? May 31 $4 −$1 -32%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 31 $31 +$5 +18%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $3 +$2 +96%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? May 29 $11 −$4 -34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $83 −$34 -41%
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? May 26 $15 −$12 -80%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $26 +$3 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 24 $16 +$3 +17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $90 −$90 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 21 $27 −$13 -49%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? May 10 $13 −$13 -99%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 08 $35 −$11 -32%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 08 $4 −$2 -37%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 08 $27 −$8 -31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 07 $8 +$2 +24%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 07 $32 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 07 $3 −$1 -33%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 07 $9 −$7 -75%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week May 07 $3 $0 -3%
Will MrBeast's video get between 71 and 72 million views on day 4? May 06 $8 +$3 +45%
Will MrBeast's video get between 72 and 73 million views on day 4? May 06 $6 +$2 +41%
Will MrBeast's video get between 73 and 74 million views on day 4? May 06 $1 $0 -13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 05 $14 −$5 -35%
Will MrBeast's video get between 62 and 64 million views on day 3? May 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 04 $8 $0 +5%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 7? May 04 $0 $0 -54%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 6? May 04 $0 $0 -57%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 May 03 $3 $0 +8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026? May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 03 $4 $0 +4%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 02 $28 +$52 +190%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 2? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -63%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 28, 2026? Apr 30 $1 +$7 +575%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 1? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -86%
Will Powell say "Luck" during April press conference? Apr 29 $4 +$2 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 46% +$883
world 31% −$673
sports 13% −$234
politics 4% −$103
crypto 3% +$36
economics 1% −$6
finance 1% −$31
tech 1% +$5
culture 1% +$72
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 42m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 43m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $6 46m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $5 47m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $1 47m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $7 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $13 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $8 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $8 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $17 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 28¢ $3 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 12h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 25¢ $0 14h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 25¢ $2 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +22.7% +11.0% 60% 60% -20.7%
≤30d 25 -2.0% -11.3% 44% 44% -31.5%
≤90d 297 -13.7% -22.0% 35% 26% -19.3%
all 489 -3.1% -12.4% 42% 32% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 32% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 27% -18.5%
15% -28.4% 22% -26.4%
20% -35.4% 19% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.19 · official $138.20 (match) · 2850 history records