Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:23:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DE
0xde38…666e
world · 90 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$4 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$147
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses28 / 61
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)89 / 90
History coverage291d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 1 History 89 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $148 $147 −$1 (-1%)
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? No 6¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $149 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $163 +$1 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $163 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $33 +$2 +5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 08 $147 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $6 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $136 +$2 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $175 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $145 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $345 +$1 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $3 $0 -12%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $160 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $50 +$6 +12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $140 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $9 −$3 -31%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $157 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $34 +$4 +11%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $307 +$6 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $283 −$11 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $149 $0 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $137 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $120 +$1 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $146 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 20 $5 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $160 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 19 $59 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $12 $0 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $593 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $86 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $148 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $222 −$1 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $160 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $333 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $145 −$2 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $169 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $292 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $306 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $231 −$1 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $9 $0 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $159 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $147 −$1 -1%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $148 −$1 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 15 $163 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $302 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $149 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $170 $0 -0%
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 13 $148 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 13 $149 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 39% +$1
politics 22% −$2
other 17% −$3
sports 14% −$4
economics 4% −$1
finance 3% +$6
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $17 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $131 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $134 5h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $14 5h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $149 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $164 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $163 10h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $163 18h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $163 18h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $34 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $33 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $147 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $147 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $34 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $45 8d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $160 8d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $160 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $146 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $145 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $11 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $6 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $106 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $122 13d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 13d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 13d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 13d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $160 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.0% -8.6% 40% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 31 -2.8% -12.0% 45% 6% -9.3%
≤90d 77 -2.5% -11.8% 34% 3% -9.5%
all 89 -2.2% -11.5% 31% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 2% -9.5%
10% -20.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.20 · official $147.20 (match) · 359 history records