Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:13:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DE 0xde2f…ad33 sports 160 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (148 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$118 (+2%) realized +$328 · open −$210
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%63W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day148.1pace
Fees−$123est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days−$74
14 days−$121
30 days−$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$332
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (148 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 149 -14.3% -22.5% 42% 36% -11.3%
≤30d 152 -14.2% -22.3% 41% 36% -12.4%
≤90d 152 -14.2% -22.3% 41% 36% -12.4%
all 152 -14.2% -22.3% 41% 36% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover148.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.3% 36% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -29.8% 31% -20.7%
15% -36.5% 20% -28.4%
20% -42.8% 10% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized+$328
Unrealized−$210
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses63 / 89
Est. fees paid−$123
Open positions8
Markets (closed)152 / 160
History coverage10d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day148.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina Daria Kasatkina 0¢ 44¢ $0 $54 +$54 (+0%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch Chris Rodesch 75¢ 100¢ $33 $44 +$11 (+33%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina McCartney Kessler 0¢ 56¢ $0 $41 +$41 (+0%)
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu Irina-Camelia Begu 74¢ 34¢ $64 $30 −$34 (-53%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Paul Jubb Pierre-Hugues Herbert 45¢ 20¢ $44 $19 −$25 (-57%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Henrique Rocha vs Nicolas Mejia Henrique Rocha 36¢ 12¢ $8 $3 −$6 (-68%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch Florent Bax 25¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lukas Neumayer vs Dusan Lajovic Lukas Neumayer 49¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zhizhen Zhang vs Henry Searle Zhizhen Zhang 49¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Nick Kyrgios 55¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Gustavo Heide Jun 22 $94 +$31 +33%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh Jun 22 $94 +$20 +22%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Draxl vs Remy Bertola Jun 22 $59 +$14 +24%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Matej Dodig vs Frederico Ferreira Silva Jun 22 $59 +$12 +20%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Rio Noguchi vs Luca Nardi Jun 22 $64 −$42 -66%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Broady vs August Holmgren Jun 22 $133 +$1 +0%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francesco Maestrelli vs Max Basing Jun 22 $134 +$55 +41%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs Gonzalo Bueno Jun 22 $39 −$3 -7%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jun 22 $116 +$30 +25%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jay Clarke vs Andrea Pellegrino Jun 22 $93 −$46 -49%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Joao Lucas Da Si Jun 22 $6 −$5 -92%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce Jun 22 $39 +$20 +50%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Pedro Martinez Jun 22 $45 −$23 -50%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $28 +$11 +39%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 22 $12 −$11 -96%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Elias Ymer Jun 22 $34 +$11 +33%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Pol Martin Tiffo Jun 22 $35 −$22 -65%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan Jun 22 $29 +$16 +55%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $68 −$4 -5%
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 22 $46 +$18 +40%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Edas Butvilas vs Moez Echargui Jun 22 $34 +$14 +41%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Moreno De Alboran vs Harold Mayo Jun 22 $17 −$3 -18%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Lautaro Midon Jun 22 $29 −$6 -22%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Daniil Glinka vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 22 $12 −$3 -23%
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 22 $35 −$21 -60%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 22 $34 −$14 -40%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Juan Carlos Prado vs Daniel Evans Jun 22 $28 +$12 +43%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Can Jun 22 $35 +$19 +54%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Maya Joint vs Emiliana Arango Jun 22 $47 +$17 +37%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vitaliy Sachko vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 22 $23 −$17 -73%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Hannah Klugman vs Tereza Valentova Jun 22 $62 +$7 +11%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin Jun 22 $35 +$12 +33%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Raul Brancaccio vs Arthur Gea Jun 22 $34 −$17 -50%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Tarvet vs Alex Bolt Jun 22 $47 +$15 +31%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Johannus Monday vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 22 $35 −$23 -65%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andres Andrade vs Colton Smith Jun 22 $29 +$12 +41%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Anton Matusevich vs Rei Sakamoto Jun 22 $28 +$14 +49%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Petra Marcinko Jun 22 $29 +$12 +41%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daria Snigur vs Anhelina Kalinina Jun 22 $104 +$27 +26%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Daria Snigur Jun 22 $20 −$10 -50%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Borna Gojo Jun 22 $11 −$5 -47%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Chidekh vs Aziz Dougaz Jun 22 $17 +$13 +77%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Max Houkes Jun 22 $6 −$4 -61%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Valentin Royer Jun 22 $23 −$2 -8%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mark Lajal vs Luka Pavlovic Jun 22 $17 −$9 -54%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $12 +$6 +48%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Jun 22 $12 +$5 +39%
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejo Jun 21 $17 +$7 +40%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $20 +$2 +12%
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 21 $18 +$7 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu SELL Venus Williams 66¢ $59 6m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina BUY McCartney Kessler 61¢ $12 6m
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 51¢ $12 8m
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Venus Williams 38¢ $12 13m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina BUY McCartney Kessler 62¢ $12 13m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Gustavo Heide SELL Gustavo Heide 69¢ $52 14m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina BUY McCartney Kessler 65¢ $12 16m
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 53¢ $12 18m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch BUY Chris Rodesch 75¢ $11 19m
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Venus Williams 36¢ $12 21m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh SELL Vilius Gaubas 39¢ $52 24m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina BUY McCartney Kessler 64¢ $12 25m
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 56¢ $12 26m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Paul Jubb SELL Paul Jubb 73¢ $52 28m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina BUY Daria Kasatkina 32¢ $12 30m
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Venus Williams 40¢ $11 33m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch BUY Chris Rodesch 80¢ $11 33m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Paul Jubb BUY Pierre-Hugues Herbert 47¢ $12 33m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina BUY Daria Kasatkina 37¢ $12 34m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Gustavo Heide SELL Chun-Hsin Tseng 62¢ $72 35m
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 56¢ $12 36m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Paul Jubb BUY Paul Jubb 51¢ $12 37m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina BUY Daria Kasatkina 40¢ $12 39m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Paul Jubb BUY Pierre-Hugues Herbert 48¢ $12 42m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina BUY Daria Kasatkina 46¢ $12 43m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Gustavo Heide BUY Gustavo Heide 51¢ $12 44m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Paul Jubb BUY Paul Jubb 48¢ $12 46m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Draxl vs Remy Bertola SELL Remy Bertola 47¢ $55 46m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Gustavo Heide BUY Gustavo Heide 72¢ $12 48m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Matej Dodig vs Frederico Ferreira Silva SELL Matej Dodig 29¢ $55 52m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.69 · official $193.11 · 1601 history records