Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:24:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde2e…439c sports 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$663 (-13%) realized −$663 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%35W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$153
7 days−$419
14 days−$280
30 days−$1,277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$448
crypto 17% −$323
politics 1% −$4
other 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -54.5% -58.8% 17% 17% -66.7%
≤30d 62 -21.4% -28.9% 29% 29% -59.3%
≤90d 62 -21.4% -28.9% 29% 29% -59.3%
all 103 -9.6% -18.2% 34% 33% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 33% -23.3%
10% -26.0% 31% -30.6%
15% -33.2% 30% -37.3%
20% -39.7% 27% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$39 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$663
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses35 / 68
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)103 / 103
History coverage143d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 103 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 23 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 23 $40 +$14 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 22 $37 −$37 -100%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A Jun 22 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$5 -32%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $29 −$11 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$14 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$17 +84%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 19 $15 −$2 -16%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 −$12 -78%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $10 −$1 -10%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) - MPL Ind Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $48 −$48 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$22 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$21 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $46 +$24 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$19 -89%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $15 +$27 +177%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $40 +$60 +149%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $27 +$41 +149%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $16 +$7 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $30 −$7 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$30 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $23 −$19 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$14 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$21 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$13 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 07 $68 −$21 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $37 32h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A SELL Execration 16¢ $8 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $10 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $15 32h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A BUY Execration 21¢ $10 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $19 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $18 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $29 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $29 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $37 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $6 4d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff SELL Virtus.pro 68¢ $0 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $21 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 30¢ $9 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $10 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff SELL Virtus.pro 46¢ $13 4d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY Virtus.pro 53¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY Virtus.pro 53¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $43 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 337 history records