Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:06:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde2c…b442 crypto 1367 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$745 (+4%) realized +$17 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate59%832W / 576L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day73.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$139
7 days+$36
14 days+$313
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$306
other 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 256 -9.1% -17.7% 46% 46% -8.8%
≤30d 1408 -2.8% -12.1% 59% 44% -9.4%
≤90d 1408 -2.8% -12.1% 59% 44% -9.4%
all 1408 -2.8% -12.1% 59% 44% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 44% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 38% -18.1%
15% -28.2% 36% -26.0%
20% -35.2% 32% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5.850130041508757% → late 0.17635769719806785% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses832 / 576
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1408 / 1367
History coverage29d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day73.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1408 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-99%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $62 +$86 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$25 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $15 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $15 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $15 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.28 · official $1.40 · 3500 history records