Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T15:27:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DE 0xde29…89b1 sports 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (133 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$43,674 (-1%) realized −$44,468 · open +$794
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201,069per market
Trades / day132.5pace
Fees−$5,382est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$56,903now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65,394
7 days−$56,152
14 days−$56,152
30 days−$44,366
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% +$11,787
world 31% +$1,301
sports 5% −$56,659
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (133 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -7.5% -16.3% 31% 15% -13.0%
≤30d 14 -6.9% -15.8% 36% 14% -10.5%
≤90d 14 -6.9% -15.8% 36% 14% -10.5%
all 14 -6.9% -15.8% 36% 14% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover132.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 14% -10.5%
10% -23.8% 14% -19.1%
15% ← realistic here -31.2% 14% -26.9%
20% -37.9% 14% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -57% → late +43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
119.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20,119 vs −$16,107 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$56,903
Realized−$44,468
Unrealized+$794
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$5,382
Open positions7
Markets (closed)14 / 21
History coverage19d
Avg bet$201,069
Trades / day132.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $22,000 $21,500 −$500 (-2%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $14,000 $14,500 +$500 (+4%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $11,451 $11,711 +$260 (+2%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes $7,000 $7,500 +$500 (+7%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $1,382 $1,404 +$22 (+2%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $262 $273 +$11 (+4%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $21,000 +$79,000 +376%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1,995 +$8,506 +426%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 20 $22,000 −$22,000 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $20,000 −$20,000 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 20 $8,000 −$8,000 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 19 $24,000 −$24,000 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $25,948 −$25,948 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $7,900 −$7,900 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $21,000 −$21,000 -100%
Will Brayden McNabb lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in assists? Jun 19 $80 $0 +0%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $16,000 −$16,000 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1,299,919 +$1,301 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $2,698,397 +$11,787 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 10m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $50 13m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 15m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 20m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 21m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 22m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 22m
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 22m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 24m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 24m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 24m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 24m
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 25m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1,065 25m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 25m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $337 25m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 25m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 25m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 25m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $252 25m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 29m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $12 31m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $395 31m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $12 31m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 31m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 31m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $53 31m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 37m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56,903.31 · official $56,903.31 (match) · 2530 history records