Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:21:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DE 0xde24…38e5 sports 1310 markets active 2h ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,420 (+12%) realized +$3,424 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%730W / 578L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$410est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$322now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$341
7 days+$203
14 days+$841
30 days+$3,335
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$3,543
weather 0% −$6
other 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +3.6% -6.2% 40% 40% +1.2%
≤30d 32 +32.5% +19.9% 53% 53% +20.7%
≤90d 297 +6.3% -3.8% 56% 47% +3.0%
all 1308 -2.5% -11.8% 56% 52% +2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 52% +2.1%
10% -20.3% 43% -7.7%
15% -28.0% 34% -16.6%
20% -35.0% 26% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$23 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$322
Realized+$3,424
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses730 / 578
Est. fees paid−$410
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1308 / 1310
History coverage221d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1308 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Kansas City Royals 38¢ 38¢ $326 $322 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 22 $341 −$341 -100%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 20 $323 −$317 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 19 $324 −$318 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $369 +$538 +146%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $372 +$642 +172%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $369 −$362 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $371 +$640 +172%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $372 +$643 +172%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $441 +$568 +129%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $430 −$423 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $478 −$470 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $488 −$480 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $478 +$523 +109%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 08 $322 +$695 +216%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $491 +$516 +105%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $255 +$503 +197%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $240 +$519 +216%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $304 +$502 +165%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $224 +$276 +124%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 02 $214 −$210 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $219 +$281 +129%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $210 +$293 +140%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals Jun 01 $254 +$247 +97%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 31 $208 −$204 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $441 +$568 +129%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 30? May 29 $5 −$1 -11%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $374 −$368 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 28? May 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 26? May 27 $2 +$1 +34%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $370 −$363 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $463 −$455 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $307 −$302 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 23 $624 −$616 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $373 +$425 +114%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $272 −$266 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $262 −$256 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 19 $262 −$262 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $270 +$531 +197%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $266 +$439 +165%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on May 17? May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on May 17? May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 17? May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 15? May 16 $1 $0 +45%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $158 +$240 +152%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 15 $139 −$136 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 15? May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 15? May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $279 +$424 +152%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 12 $159 −$155 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $184 +$317 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Kansas City Royals 38¢ $332 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 39¢ $341 26h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 37¢ $323 2d
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 35¢ $324 3d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 40¢ $369 4d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 36¢ $364 5d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 36¢ $372 6d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 36¢ $369 7d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 36¢ $371 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $372 9d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 43¢ $441 10d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 42¢ $430 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $478 12d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 48¢ $488 13d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $478 14d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Angels 31¢ $322 15d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers BUY Cleveland Guardians 48¢ $491 16d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $255 17d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Toronto Blue Jays 31¢ $240 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $304 19d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY San Diego Padres 42¢ $214 20d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Detroit Tigers 44¢ $224 20d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals BUY Miami Marlins 43¢ $219 21d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Detroit Tigers 41¢ $210 21d
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 50¢ $254 22d
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Minnesota Twins 40¢ $208 22d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $441 23d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $5 24d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 24d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $321.71 · official $321.71 (match) · 2093 history records