Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:15:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DE 0xde23…3c99 crypto 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$110 (-14%) realized −$112 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate43%19W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$45
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$117
politics 11% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 12 -30.9% -37.5% 33% 25% -38.3%
≤90d 44 -9.4% -18.1% 43% 30% -26.2%
all 44 -9.4% -18.1% 43% 30% -26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 30% -26.2%
10% -25.9% 27% -33.3%
15% -33.1% 27% -39.7%
20% -39.6% 27% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$14 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$112
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses19 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage31d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $56 $57 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$30 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$8 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$10 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$9 -46%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $15 −$5 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $28 −$25 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 01 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 21 $22 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 21 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 21 $31 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 21 $14 +$12 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 20 $24 −$23 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 20 $26 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 20 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 20 $26 +$32 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 20 $37 +$6 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 20 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 20 $14 +$63 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 20 $13 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 20 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 20 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 20 $5 +$11 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 20 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 20 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 20 $25 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 20 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 20 $46 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 20 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 20 $21 +$11 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 20 $10 −$9 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 20 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 20 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 20 $5 +$7 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 16¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $8 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $21 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $12 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $21 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $12 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $9 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $12 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $9 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 2¢ $7 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 2¢ $7 7d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid BUY Yes 0¢ $15 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $34 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.37 · official $57.37 (match) · 138 history records