Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:43:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

DE 0xde23…1bc6 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$41 (+6%) realized +$149 · open −$108

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +93% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +68% what you keep after slip

Net edge+68%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$115per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$522now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+74.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+93.2%	+74.8%	100%	100%	+74.8%
≤30d	1	+93.2%	+74.8%	100%	100%	+74.8%
≤90d	1	+93.2%	+74.8%	100%	100%	+74.8%
all	1	+93.2%	+74.8%	100%	100%	+74.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+74.8%	100%	+74.8%
10%	+58.1%	100%	+58.1%
15%	+42.8%	100%	+42.8%
20%	+28.8%	100%	+28.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +93% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +93% · $-wt +93% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$47 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$522

Realized+$149

Unrealized−$108

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions5

Markets (closed)1 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$115

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	59¢	52¢	$250	$218	−$32 (-13%)
England to score first vs. Croatia?	Yes	62¢	100¢	$100	$161	+$61 (+61%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Under	53¢	18¢	$200	$66	−$134 (-67%)
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5	Over	53¢	72¢	$30	$40	+$10 (+35%)
Spread: England (-1.5)	England	33¢	24¢	$50	$36	−$14 (-29%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$51	+$47	+93%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	53¢	$101	37m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	53¢	$101	37m
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5	BUY Over	53¢	$30	1h
Spread: England (-1.5)	BUY England	33¢	$51	1h
England to score first vs. Croatia?	BUY Yes	62¢	$101	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$51	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$202	1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	51¢	$51	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $521.55 · official $521.55 (match) · 9 history records