Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:26:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DE 0xde20…59f4 other 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 631d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$30 (-0%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate25%13W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$313per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 80% −$14
politics 12% −$7
other 5% −$25
sports 1% +$14
crypto 1% +$1
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 +4.5% -5.5% 11% 6% -7.5%
≤90d 38 -0.4% -9.9% 21% 16% -11.8%
all 53 +0.6% -9.0% 25% 13% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 13% -9.7%
10% -17.7% 13% -18.3%
15% -25.6% 13% -26.2%
20% -32.9% 13% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

631d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses13 / 40
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage631d
Avg bet$313
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $120 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $13 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $60 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $10 +$9 +83%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $22 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $65 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $55 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $103 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $54 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $52 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $55 $0 -0%
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Apr 20 $55 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $52 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $9 +$5 +52%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $8 +$5 +70%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $8 +$8 +108%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $9 +$10 +109%
Jets vs. Stars Apr 06 $12 +$8 +64%
Pacers vs. Bulls Apr 02 $14 −$14 -100%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 01 $76 $0 +0%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-15? Mar 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Red Wings vs. Stars Mar 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Mar 15 $17 $0 -0%
Red Wings vs. Lightning Mar 13 $34 +$17 +52%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $3 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? Mar 05 $65 +$1 +1%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Feb 13 $65 +$1 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 24 $13,546 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 08 $2 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $30 −$1 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 18 $58 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 01 $6 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $8 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $174 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $120 in June? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $13 16h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 17h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 36h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 40h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 2d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 5d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 5d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 6d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 7d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $11 9d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 9d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 54¢ $10 9d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 15d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 15d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 16d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 16d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.64 · official $37.66 (match) · 277 history records