Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:35:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde1e…e953 other 157 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,762 (-2%) realized −$2,763 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate25%39W / 116L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,007per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$549now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$18
14 days−$31
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$73
other 39% −$146
sports 12% −$2,560
culture 4% −$6
world 2% −$1
crypto 1% +$2
tech 1% −$1
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 38 +4.7% -5.2% 11% 8% -9.5%
≤90d 101 -6.5% -15.4% 8% 5% -11.9%
all 155 -0.1% -9.7% 25% 10% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 10% -11.1%
10% -18.3% 10% -19.6%
15% -26.2% 8% -27.4%
20% -33.4% 6% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,418) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$31 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$549
Realized−$2,763
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses39 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions2
Markets (closed)155 / 157
History coverage144d
Avg bet$1,007
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $290 $289 −$1 (-0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $258 $259 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,934 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2,365 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,471 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $4,821 −$5 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $2,561 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $648 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,827 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $758 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $699 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $474 −$1 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $66 −$66 -100%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 04 $47 +$60 +129%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $641 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $746 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $2,291 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,454 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $425 +$1 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $292 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $309 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 29 $316 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $377 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $363 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $337 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $501 −$1 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $54 +$41 +76%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,560 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $811 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $1,615 −$2 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 22 $46 +$37 +79%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $1,825 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $5,470 −$6 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 10 $849 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $909 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $916 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 09 $834 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $905 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,604 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $958 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $2,106 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $943 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 06 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $872 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $481 1h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $482 2h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $468 18h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $469 20h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $408 22h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $408 27h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $456 43h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $456 46h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $476 2d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $477 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $471 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $472 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $349 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $349 4d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $290 4d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $618 4d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $619 4d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $618 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $618 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $675 7d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $676 7d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $647 7d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $648 8d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $651 8d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $652 8d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $756 9d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $758 9d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $698 9d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $699 9d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $474 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $548.60 · official $548.60 (match) · 507 history records