Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:15:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde1e…7eb6 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$146 (-15%) realized −$146 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$122
7 days−$15
14 days−$125
30 days−$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$103
other 27% −$111
crypto 13% −$116
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -12.9% -21.2% 50% 40% -11.3%
≤30d 13 -21.1% -28.6% 46% 38% -21.5%
≤90d 13 -21.1% -28.6% 46% 38% -21.5%
all 13 -21.1% -28.6% 46% 38% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.6% 38% -21.5%
10% -35.4% 38% -29.0%
15% -41.7% 31% -35.9%
20% -47.4% 23% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -63% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$40 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$146
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage11d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $148 +$5 +4%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $170 −$22 -13%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $127 +$43 +34%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $78 +$48 +62%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 +$28 +54%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $31 +$20 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $75 −$72 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$29 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $46 −$16 -34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $32 +$14 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $124 −$109 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $153 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $148 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 61¢ $148 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 69¢ $170 2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $170 2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 74¢ $127 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $127 10h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 61¢ $78 11h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $78 11h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $51 11h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $51 12h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $31 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $75 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $30 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 47¢ $30 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $46 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $46 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $32 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $14 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 7¢ $14 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $124 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records