Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:55:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DE
0xde1d…46d6
other · 253 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$38 -56%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$34 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$1
Realized−$34
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses61 / 187
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)248 / 253
History coverage758d
Avg bet$0
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 5 History 248 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
James Comey charges dropped by July 31? Yes 10¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-84%)
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? Yes 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? Yes 24¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MLB: Perfect Game thrown in 2026 season? Jun 13 $1 $0 -10%
Will any player break a device during IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1? Jun 08 $0 +$1 +580%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? Jun 06 $0 $0 +15%
Will flameZ win an HLTV MVP award by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $0 $0 -100%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump Insult Xi this week? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election? May 20 $1 $0 -28%
Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31? May 12 $1 $0 +10%
NBA: Co-Rookie of the Year winners? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Tucker Carlson announces a run for office by June 30? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -68%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15? Apr 13 $0 +$2 +1880%
Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31? Apr 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will any European country expel an Israeli ambassador by March 31? Apr 07 $0 $0 -100%
Park Sung-jae in jail by March 31? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st? Apr 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by March 31? Apr 07 $0 $0 -100%
ICE forced to unmask by February 28? Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by February 28? Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 24 $0 $0 +0%
Chelsea wins the Premier League? Feb 24 $0 $0 +0%
Will someone else be inaugurated? Feb 24 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 24 $0 $0 +0%
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Feb 24 $0 $0 +0%
Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $7m? Feb 24 $0 $0 +0%
US Treasury transactions on blockchain in 2025? Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Apple acquire Perplexity before September? Feb 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon cut the budget by at least 10% in 2025? Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bezos divorce in 2025? Feb 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Andrej Karpathy join one of Elon Musk's companies by August 31? Feb 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Scott Bessent throw a punch? Feb 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Feb 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the MetaDAO proposal to engage in a $6M OTC deal pass? Feb 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will a Millennium Prize Problem be solved before the end of 2025? Feb 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kamala Harris announce Presidential run by December 31? Feb 16 $0 $0 -100%
John Brennan federally charged by October 31? Feb 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Chainlink hit $30 before August? Feb 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will “The Fate of Ophelia” have 1.5 Million Likes on Friday at Noon? Feb 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025? Feb 16 $0 $0 -100%
US bank failure by December 31? Feb 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025? Feb 16 $0 $0 -100%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by December 31? Feb 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ghislaine Maxwell cut a deal with the Feds in 2025? Feb 16 $0 $0 -100%
Taylor Swift pregnant in 2025? Feb 16 $0 $0 -100%
Tea App removed from App Store by August 31? Feb 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025? Feb 16 $0 $0 -100%
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? Feb 16 $0 $0 -100%
TikTok removed from App Store by September 30? Feb 16 $0 $0 -100%
Joe Biden arrested by December 31? Feb 16 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 33% −$16
other 33% −$11
world 11% −$6
crypto 8% −$1
sports 6% −$3
economics 3% −$1
culture 2% +$1
finance 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
MLB: Perfect Game thrown in 2026 season? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 1h
MLB: Perfect Game thrown in 2026 season? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 16h
MLB: Perfect Game thrown in 2026 season? SELL Yes $1 2d
MLB: Perfect Game thrown in 2026 season? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Will any player break a device during IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will any player break a device during IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will any player break a device during IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1? BUY Yes $0 6d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? SELL Yes $0 7d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY Yes $0 8d
James Comey charges dropped by July 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 16d
Will flameZ win an HLTV MVP award by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 19d
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? BUY Yes $1 20d
Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election? SELL Yes $1 23d
Will Trump Insult Xi this week? BUY Yes $1 32d
Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $1 32d
Tucker Carlson announces a run for office by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 48d
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? BUY Yes $1 54d
NBA: Co-Rookie of the Year winners? BUY Yes $1 58d
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 61d
Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 62d
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15? BUY Yes $0 64d
Tucker Carlson announces a run for office by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 65d
Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31? BUY Yes $0 73d
Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election? BUY Yes $1 75d
Will any European country expel an Israeli ambassador by March 31? BUY Yes $0 77d
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by March 31? BUY Yes $0 91d
Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st? BUY Yes $0 91d
Will Trump publicly disparage Netanyahu this week? SELL Yes $0 117d
Will Trump publicly disparage Netanyahu this week? BUY Yes $1 123d
ICE forced to unmask by February 28? BUY Yes $1 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +285.0% +248.3% 50% 50% +29.6%
≤30d 8 +19.7% +8.3% 25% 25% -60.4%
≤90d 18 +71.1% +54.8% 22% 17% -51.5%
all 248 -22.2% -29.6% 25% 16% -57.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 16% -57.6%
10% -36.4% 13% -61.6%
15% -42.5% 12% -65.3%
20% -48.1% 11% -68.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.81 · official $0.81 (match) · 559 history records