Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:53:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde1b…d50e crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$41 (-11%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -20.5% -28.1% 39% 33% -18.7%
≤30d 18 -20.5% -28.1% 39% 33% -18.7%
≤90d 18 -20.5% -28.1% 39% 33% -18.7%
all 18 -20.5% -28.1% 39% 33% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 33% -18.7%
10% -35.0% 33% -26.4%
15% -41.3% 33% -33.6%
20% -47.0% 33% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$17 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage14d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$43 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$24 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$27 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$13 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records