Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:42:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

DE 0xde1b…f94f sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 180d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$2,080 (-39%) realized −$2,081 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip

Net edge-14%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%10W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$243per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$516now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$3

7 days−$6

14 days−$4

30 days−$12

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-14.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-21.9%	-29.3%	50%	50%	-47.2%
≤30d	14	-21.9%	-29.4%	43%	43%	-30.7%
≤90d	14	-21.9%	-29.4%	43%	43%	-30.7%
all	20	-5.4%	-14.4%	50%	50%	-48.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-14.4%	50%	-48.5%
10%	-22.6%	50%	-53.4%
15%	-30.1%	50%	-57.9%
20%	-36.9%	35%	-62.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 62% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -5% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -6% → late -5% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$137 vs −$345 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.4 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage

Net worth$516

Realized−$2,081

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses10 / 10

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)20 / 22

History coverage180d

Avg bet$243

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	99¢	99¢	$511	$513	+$1 (+0%)
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)	Philadelphia Phillies	36¢	36¢	$3	$3	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5	Jun 13	$3	−$3	-100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5	Jun 11	$5	−$5	-100%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5)	Jun 09	$0	$0	+69%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5	Jun 09	$6	+$2	+43%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5	Jun 03	$4	−$4	-99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5	Jun 01	$3	+$6	+220%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5	May 30	$4	−$4	-98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5	May 30	$4	+$2	+49%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5	May 28	$2	−$2	-100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5	May 27	$5	+$4	+72%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5	May 27	$4	−$4	-99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5	May 26	$6	+$2	+39%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5	May 23	$3	−$3	-100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5	May 21	$3	−$3	-99%
XRP Up or Down - December 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Dec 18	$2,819	−$2,819	-100%
XRP Up or Down - December 17, 1PM ET	Dec 18	$59	+$59	+100%
XRP Up or Down - December 17, 2PM ET	Dec 18	$26	+$26	+100%
XRP Up or Down - December 17, 11AM ET	Dec 18	$426	+$426	+100%
XRP Up or Down - December 17, 10AM ET	Dec 18	$844	+$844	+100%
XRP Up or Down - December 17, 12PM ET	Dec 17	$606	−$606	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)	BUY Philadelphia Phillies	36¢	$4	1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5	BUY Under	39¢	$3	44h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5	BUY Under	39¢	$1	44h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5	BUY Over	58¢	$4	3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5	BUY Over	58¢	$1	3d
Spread: Knicks (-4.5)	BUY Spurs	59¢	$0	5d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5	BUY Over	70¢	$5	6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5	BUY Over	70¢	$0	6d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5	BUY Over	60¢	$4	11d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5	BUY Over	31¢	$3	14d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5	BUY Over	38¢	$4	15d
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5	BUY Under	67¢	$4	16d
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5	BUY Under	67¢	$0	16d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	27¢	$2	17d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	27¢	$0	17d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	53¢	$4	19d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5	BUY Over	58¢	$0	19d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5	BUY Over	58¢	$2	19d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5	BUY Over	58¢	$3	19d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5	BUY Over	58¢	$0	19d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5	BUY Over	72¢	$3	20d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5	BUY Over	72¢	$2	20d
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5	BUY Over	40¢	$0	22d
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5	BUY Over	40¢	$3	22d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5	BUY Over	39¢	$1	24d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5	BUY Over	39¢	$2	24d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY No	99¢	$512	26d
XRP Up or Down - December 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$2,548	178d
XRP Up or Down - December 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$270	178d
XRP Up or Down - December 17, 1PM ET	SELL Down	100¢	$118	178d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $516.30 · official $516.10 (match) · 73 history records