Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:18:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DE 0xde1a…d021 sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 83d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$68 (+2%) realized +$72 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$375per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$251now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$19
30 days+$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$65
world 33% −$5
other 13% −$6
politics 5% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.4% -7.3% 100% 0% -7.3%
≤30d 8 +1.8% -7.9% 50% 0% -8.0%
≤90d 11 +1.0% -8.6% 45% 0% -8.1%
all 11 +1.0% -8.6% 45% 0% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 0% -8.1%
10% -17.4% 0% -16.9%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.0%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$3 · ×4.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.58 per $1 lost it wins $11.58
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$251
Realized+$72
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage83d
Avg bet$375
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $255 $251 −$4 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? Jun 19 $247 +$6 +2%
Spread: Cyprus (-1.5) Jun 06 $487 +$13 +3%
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $486 $0 +0%
Spread: Albania (-2.5) Jun 04 $464 +$24 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $464 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? Jun 02 $460 $0 +0%
Spread: Nice (-2.5) May 28 $471 +$19 +4%
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by June 30, 2026? May 26 $478 $0 +0%
Spread: Kocaelispor (-2.5) Apr 19 $300 +$10 +3%
Will Cuba recognize Israel by June 30 Apr 18 $301 −$1 -0%
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? Mar 29 $90 −$6 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $255 1h
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $254 21h
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $247 23h
Spread: Cyprus (-1.5) BUY Slovenia 97¢ $487 16d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $486 16d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $392 16d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $95 16d
Spread: Albania (-2.5) BUY Israel 95¢ $464 16d
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $464 16d
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $464 16d
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $460 17d
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $460 17d
Spread: Nice (-2.5) BUY Saint-Etienne 96¢ $471 24d
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $478 24d
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $478 24d
Spread: Kocaelispor (-2.5) BUY Göztepe SK 97¢ $300 62d
Will Cuba recognize Israel by June 30 SELL No 98¢ $300 62d
Will Cuba recognize Israel by June 30 BUY No 98¢ $301 62d
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $85 82d
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $90 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $250.58 · official $250.58 (match) · 24 history records