Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:06:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde1a…77b3 world 171 markets active 1h ago coverage 425d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$10 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate62%98W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$308now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$3
14 days−$11
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$11
other 17% −$29
crypto 15% −$9
finance 12% +$16
politics 9% +$7
tech 7% −$1
sports 6% −$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -2.7% -12.0% 50% 18% -10.0%
≤30d 55 -1.7% -11.1% 47% 11% -10.7%
≤90d 116 +0.4% -9.2% 61% 11% -9.4%
all 157 -3.2% -12.4% 62% 17% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 17% -10.3%
10% -20.8% 5% -18.9%
15% -28.4% 3% -26.7%
20% -35.4% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

425d coverage
Net worth$308
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses98 / 59
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)157 / 171
History coverage425d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $56 $37 −$19 (-34%)
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? No 87¢ 94¢ $29 $32 +$2 (+8%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 91¢ 94¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Runoff by at least 15%? Yes 89¢ 92¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+4%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 91¢ 91¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? No 92¢ 92¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? No 85¢ 85¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 82¢ 89¢ $13 $15 +$1 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 88¢ 95¢ $13 $15 +$1 (+9%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 90¢ $14 $14 +$1 (+4%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 92¢ 98¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+7%)
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Yes 87¢ 90¢ $13 $13 +$1 (+4%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 88¢ 90¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 87¢ 89¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? Jun 22 $30 +$3 +11%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 22 $57 +$7 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 22 $43 −$1 -2%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Jun 22 $28 −$3 -10%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 22 $32 −$2 -5%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $62 +$6 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 22 $29 +$2 +6%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 22 $28 $0 +1%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $13 −$1 -6%
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? Jun 20 $14 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Jun 19 $14 −$1 -5%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 18 $13 +$2 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 17 $30 −$3 -10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $8 +$1 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 17 $13 +$1 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 17 $26 +$3 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 16 $13 −$3 -23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 16 $17 +$2 +9%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 16 $17 +$1 +7%
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Jun 16 $54 −$2 -4%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $41 −$3 -8%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $28 +$5 +19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $15 −$1 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 12 $17 +$1 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $15 −$2 -15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $28 −$3 -10%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 11 $30 −$2 -5%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $15 −$1 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $17 +$2 +9%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? Jun 10 $45 −$4 -9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 07 $17 −$1 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $49 −$4 -9%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June? Jun 07 $19 −$2 -13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 07 $17 −$2 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $17 +$2 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $34 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 05 $17 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 05 $34 +$2 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $17 −$1 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 02 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 01 $10 −$1 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 29 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 29 $30 +$1 +3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $10 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 91¢ $30 1h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $33 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $30 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $30 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL Yes 95¢ $34 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 83¢ $28 5h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $30 6h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $0 6h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $25 6h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $28 7h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 90¢ $30 7h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL No 84¢ $31 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 8h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 87¢ $8 18h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $32 18h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $32 18h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 87¢ $31 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $15 18h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 84¢ $12 36h
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $29 42h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $29 44h
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? SELL Yes 89¢ $13 45h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $26 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $29 2d
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $4 2d
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $29 2d
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY Yes 89¢ $30 2d
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? BUY Yes 92¢ $14 2d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? BUY No 85¢ $14 2d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? BUY No 85¢ $14 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $308.21 · official $308.21 (match) · 448 history records