Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:18:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DE 0xde18…75da crypto 482 markets active 0h ago coverage 159d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 159d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,247 (-9%) realized −$1,250 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate44%228W / 296L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$918
7 days−$1,071
14 days−$1,071
30 days−$1,071
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$575
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 430 -24.5% -31.7% 43% 23% -18.3%
≤30d 430 -24.5% -31.7% 43% 23% -18.3%
≤90d 435 -24.4% -31.6% 42% 23% -18.3%
all 524 -20.4% -28.0% 44% 26% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.0% 26% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here -34.9% 19% -24.7%
15% -41.2% 11% -32.0%
20% -46.9% 6% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$1,250
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses228 / 296
Open positions1
Markets (closed)524 / 482
History coverage159d ⚠
Avg bet$29
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 524 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 3¢ 12¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+279%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 218 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $12 −$13 -108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$18 -124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$6 -208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $0 −$4 -8335%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$19 -146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$18 -174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$27 -104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$14 -325%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$25 -708%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$2 -165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$2 -140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $0 +$4 +6604%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$4 -362%
Solana Up or Down - January 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$5 -196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $7 −$10 -154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$28 -765%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$4 +675%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$8 -119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$4 -175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$5 -104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$8 -258%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$33 +5902%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$24 -474%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $40 +$7 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $79 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $104 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $104 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $17 −$10 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $69 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $82 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $27 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $26 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $13 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $26 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $13 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $26 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $26 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $13 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $104 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $35 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $35 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $35 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $35 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $35 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $35 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $69 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $34 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $34 18m
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 18m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $104 19m
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $6 19m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $34 19m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.79 · official $11.85 · 3500 history records