Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde17…54d9 crypto 520 markets active 2h ago coverage 277d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,511 (-19%) realized −$7,511 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate20%104W / 416L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$599
7 days−$599
14 days−$599
30 days−$599
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$7,944
world 2% −$155
economics 0% −$47
other 0% −$2
sports 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -74.8% -77.2% 7% 7% -79.1%
≤30d 14 -74.8% -77.2% 7% 7% -79.1%
≤90d 138 -69.5% -72.4% 12% 12% -68.9%
all 520 -20.3% -27.9% 20% 19% -29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.9% 19% -29.5%
10% -34.8% 19% -36.3%
15% -41.1% 19% -42.4%
20% -46.9% 18% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$195 vs −$69 · ×2.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

277d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7,511
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses104 / 416
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)520 / 520
History coverage277d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 520 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $50 −$47 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $44 −$42 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 25 $44 −$42 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $60 −$57 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$128 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$49 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 24 $89 −$85 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 24 $100 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $90 −$20 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $41 −$38 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 24 $104 −$98 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 24 $74 −$20 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $96 −$83 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 05 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 05 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4AM ET May 05 $180 −$170 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 05 $103 −$97 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 05 $145 +$132 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3AM ET May 05 $85 +$155 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 04 $7 −$7 -94%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 04 $13 −$6 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET May 04 $65 −$62 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 04 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 04 $24 −$23 -94%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 03 $28 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 03 $25 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 03 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 02 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 22 $31 −$29 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Apr 22 $146 −$137 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4PM ET Apr 22 $6 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Apr 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Apr 21 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1PM ET Apr 21 $50 −$47 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Apr 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Apr 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Apr 19 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Apr 19 $83 −$31 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Apr 19 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 19 $66 +$63 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 19 $12 +$18 +155%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $44 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $46 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $99 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $89 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $42 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $53 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $21 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $211 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $69 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $11 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $9 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $11 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $11 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $9 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1663 history records