Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:47:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DE
0xde0f…57c1
other · 240 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$590 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$613 · open −$23
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$155
Realized+$613
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses46 / 186
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions8
Markets (closed)232 / 240
History coverage106d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit8%
Chart Positions 8 History 232 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$97
14 days−$496
30 days−$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 9¢ 14¢ $42 $62 +$20 (+49%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $12 $20 +$8 (+62%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-9%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $55 $14 −$41 (-75%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $12 $6 −$7 (-54%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $207 $0 −$207 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $119 $0 −$119 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $57 $0 −$57 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $51 −$47 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $38 −$15 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $35 −$25 -72%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $28 −$17 -63%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $73 +$19 +25%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $8 −$3 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $108 −$100 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $129 −$119 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $45 −$41 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $27 −$17 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $86 −$79 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $35 +$397 +1144%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $5 +$14 +318%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $51 −$47 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $224 −$207 -92%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 02 $17 −$3 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 31 $67 −$52 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 31 $42 −$32 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026? May 31 $76 −$55 -72%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $28 −$26 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $35 −$32 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $9 −$4 -42%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 29 $17 −$15 -86%
Will Dinamo 1948 win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $18 +$6 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $20 −$14 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in May 2026? May 28 $37 −$30 -81%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $22 −$20 -92%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $16 −$1 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $67 −$44 -65%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $89 +$531 +599%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $22 −$9 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $53 −$49 -92%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 24 $20 −$19 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 24 $31 −$16 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $24 −$21 -85%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $72 −$49 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $132 −$105 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $93 +$409 +440%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in May 2026? May 21 $13 −$4 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $22 −$9 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $90 −$47 -53%
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets in May 2026? May 21 $51 −$19 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $18 −$16 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $90 −$87 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in May 2026? May 20 $11 −$3 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $33 −$32 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $4 −$4 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 96% +$735
crypto 2% −$62
sports 2% −$51
economics 1% −$32
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 1h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $16 17h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $17 17h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 42h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 45h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 45h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 45h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 45h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $24 45h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 46h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 46h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 46h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 46h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 2d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $13 2d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 3d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -68.3% -71.3% 12% 12% -50.5%
≤30d 60 +4.7% -5.2% 15% 15% -23.4%
≤90d 195 +3.1% -6.7% 19% 18% -3.5%
all 232 +1.1% -8.6% 20% 18% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 18% -3.5%
10% -17.3% 18% -12.8%
15% -25.3% 16% -21.2%
20% -32.6% 15% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.03 · official $155.03 (match) · 955 history records