Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:21:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DE
0xde0f…a4e7
weather · 731 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$192 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$222 · open +$103
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$601
Realized−$222
Unrealized+$103
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses231 / 444
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions56
Markets (closed)675 / 731
History coverage144d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 56 History 675 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days−$1,148
14 days−$193
30 days−$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: the bug (-1.5) vs NA, we'd win (+1.5) NA, wed win 2¢ 50¢ $8 $171 +$164 (+2179%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? No 66¢ 74¢ $39 $43 +$4 (+11%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $34 $33 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 30¢ 32¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? No 53¢ 65¢ $25 $31 +$6 (+23%)
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 8-14? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $36 $21 −$15 (-41%)
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $26 $18 −$7 (-29%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Will Spencer Pratt call for 1st round recount? No 63¢ 86¢ $11 $16 +$4 (+37%)
Will Jesse Pollak appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31? Yes 10¢ 35¢ $4 $15 +$11 (+250%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Yes 36¢ 40¢ $12 $14 +$1 (+11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? No 37¢ 39¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+5%)
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 16? No 4¢ 2¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-33%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 14? Yes 21¢ 28¢ $6 $9 +$2 (+32%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-14%)
Will "Song Sung Blue" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Yes 8¢ 23¢ $3 $7 +$5 (+186%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-18%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No 56¢ 56¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will thiccy appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31? Yes 7¢ 22¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+207%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-46%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+35%)
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $22 −$21 -97%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 14? Jun 13 $4 −$3 -67%
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall Jun 13 $35 −$4 -10%
Will anyone say "Space" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -69%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $166 −$5 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $33 +$65 +194%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $82 +$64 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $79 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $14 +$2 +17%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 13 $1 −$1 -82%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 13 $1 −$1 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $18 −$17 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $17 +$11 +64%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 13 $27 +$1 +5%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 13 $12 −$11 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$17 +114%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $22 −$21 -97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $28 +$43 +152%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $28 −$27 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $8 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 13 $3 −$1 -39%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 13 $12 +$3 +20%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 13 $13 +$10 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$4 +203%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 +$16 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $8 +$89 +1055%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 12 $6 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $122 −$16 -13%
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Olympic Dcheira end in a draw? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 ( Jun 12 $17 −$17 -96%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) Jun 12 $14 +$12 +82%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $37 −$30 -82%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $5 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 12 $5 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -38%
Elena Rybakina vs. Tatjana Maria: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $13 +$23 +170%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 38% +$265
sports 26% −$509
world 24% +$317
other 4% +$10
finance 2% −$53
politics 2% −$18
crypto 2% −$78
tech 1% −$53
economics 0% −$3
culture 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 36¢ $4 17m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 37¢ $2 17m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 38¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 37¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 38¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 53¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 53¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 66¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 66¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 66¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 66¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 53¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 387 -47.7% -52.7% 15% 12% -31.0%
≤30d 645 -11.5% -20.0% 33% 25% -15.5%
≤90d 658 -11.4% -19.8% 33% 25% -15.5%
all 675 -11.4% -19.8% 34% 24% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.8% 24% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 20% -23.6%
15% -34.5% 17% -31.0%
20% -40.9% 15% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $600.84 · official $600.71 (match) · 3500 history records