Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:22:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde0a…f102 sports 211 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (140 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,624 (-2%) realized −$4,259 · open −$3,365
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate29%66W / 159L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,019per market
Trades / day140.4pace
Fees−$1,203est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$5,214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$31,406
sports 46% −$3,713
politics 3% +$2,937
crypto 0% −$715
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (140 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 +2.5% -7.3% 23% 15% -34.2%
≤30d 225 +0.7% -8.9% 29% 18% -26.7%
≤90d 225 +0.7% -8.9% 29% 18% -26.7%
all 225 +0.7% -8.9% 29% 18% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover140.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 18% -26.7%
10% -17.6% 13% -33.7%
15% ← realistic here -25.6% 10% -40.1%
20% -32.9% 8% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$1,564) neutral
Persistence
early -9% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
15.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,688 vs −$1,011 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$5,214
Realized−$4,259
Unrealized−$3,365
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses66 / 159
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$1,203
Open positions29
Markets (closed)225 / 211
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$2,019
Trades / day140.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 225 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 72¢ 100¢ $1,742 $2,419 +$676 (+39%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $2,344 $2,271 −$73 (-3%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $1,197 $399 −$798 (-67%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $139 $93 −$46 (-33%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Yes 12¢ 30¢ $4 $9 +$5 (+146%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1,862 $6 −$1,856 (-100%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $294 $1 −$293 (-100%)
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will George Forsyth win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will Mesías Guevara win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will Mario Vizcarra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will José Williams win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will Fernando Olivera win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will Enrique Valderrama win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 145 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 15 $5,104 −$5,702 -112%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs Jun 15 $204 −$204 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Jun 15 $481 −$438 -91%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 15 $1,667 −$1,667 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 15 $17 −$25 -145%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifi Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qual Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs Jun 15 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 15 $6,566 −$6,990 -106%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Q Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 15 $3,220 −$3,329 -103%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $282 +$2,219 +788%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $916 −$124 -14%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $81 +$3,827 +4725%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $285 −$280 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $18,270 −$10,874 -60%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1,989 −$1,941 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1,111 −$1,102 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $277 −$270 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3,208 −$3,161 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $26 −$24 -94%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21,156 +$1,157 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8,772 +$3,614 +41%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2,100 −$2,051 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $240 −$234 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $165 −$161 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $830 −$808 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,024 −$1,003 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $417 −$406 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $888 −$837 -94%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1,436 −$1,401 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $640 −$624 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $40 14m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $123 15m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $72 17m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $1,596 19m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $29 21m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $245 23m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $245 25m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $42 42m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $4 42m
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 89¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 7¢ $143 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $301 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $433 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $246 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $246 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $246 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $246 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $246 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? SELL Yes 9¢ $38 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? SELL Yes 9¢ $19 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $164 2h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $492 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,214.08 · official $5,214.08 (match) · 3500 history records