Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:30:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde08…8cd7 other 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 461d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate33%8W / 16L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% $0
other 43% $0
politics 3% $0
tech 3% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 10 -0.4% -9.9% 10% 0% -9.9%
all 24 +4.1% -5.8% 33% 8% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 8% -9.3%
10% -14.8% 8% -18.0%
15% -23.1% 4% -25.9%
20% -30.6% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

461d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses8 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage461d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 97¢ 97¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $73 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $35 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $31 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 23 $2 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $6 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $32 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $32 −$1 -2%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Dec 06 $11 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 27 $5 $0 -5%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr Jun 05 $6 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 30 $5 +$1 +32%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 20 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 19 $5 $0 -2%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? May 18 $5 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 15 $2 +$1 +73%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 13 $8 $0 -1%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canad Apr 13 $8 $0 -2%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $9 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $31 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $34 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $34 11h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $34 27d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $34 27d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $4 27d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $35 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $35 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $27 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $7 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $35 28d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $31 29d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 87¢ $31 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 89¢ $31 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 90¢ $31 30d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $1 30d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $1 30d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $2 30d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $6 30d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $6 31d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $12 31d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $19 31d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $32 31d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 97¢ $35 32d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 97¢ $35 32d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $22 33d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $9 33d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 53¢ $11 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.02 · official $31.02 (match) · 73 history records