trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 0% | 0% | -9.8% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 10% | 0% | -9.9% |
| all | 24 | +4.1% | -5.8% | 33% | 8% | -9.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -5.8% | 8% | -9.3% |
| 10% | -14.8% | 8% | -18.0% |
| 15% | -23.1% | 4% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -30.6% | 4% | -33.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $31 | $31 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 23 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 27 | $73 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab | May 26 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 26 | $35 | $0 | -1% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 24 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 24 | $31 | $0 | -1% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | May 23 | $2 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | May 23 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 23 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | May 21 | $32 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 09 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 09 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? | Dec 06 | $11 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 | Jun 27 | $5 | $0 | -5% |
| Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? | Jun 07 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr | Jun 05 | $6 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? | May 30 | $5 | +$1 | +32% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? | May 20 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 19 | $5 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? | May 18 | $5 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? | Apr 15 | $2 | +$1 | +73% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? | Apr 13 | $8 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Bloc Québécois win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canad | Apr 13 | $8 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 21 | $9 | $0 | -1% |