Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:43:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde06…9ef0 crypto 620 markets active 3h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$108 (-6%) realized −$108 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%245W / 375L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day31.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$68
14 days−$131
30 days−$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$179
sports 13% +$43
other 4% −$16
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 248 -24.6% -31.8% 36% 35% -17.6%
≤30d 581 -5.7% -14.6% 39% 36% -16.4%
≤90d 620 -7.4% -16.2% 40% 36% -16.9%
all 620 -7.4% -16.2% 40% 36% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 36% -16.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 33% -24.8%
15% -31.6% 29% -32.1%
20% -38.3% 27% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses245 / 375
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)620 / 620
History coverage36d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day31.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 620 Trades
no open positions (345 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 $0 +6%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$11 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$11 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$5 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$5 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $33 +$21 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$8 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$7 +255%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$5 +525%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$6 +243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$5 +525%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY No 94¢ $2 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1427 history records