Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:53:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DE
0xde04…fa37
sports · 510 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$25,876 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$19,546 · open −$1,697
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$328,832
Realized+$19,546
Unrealized−$1,697
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses97 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$1,938
Open positions500
Markets (closed)194 / 510
History coverage3d
Avg bet$539
Trades / day1028.5
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 500 History 194 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16,687
7 days+$19,546
14 days+$19,546
30 days+$19,546
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 82¢ 96¢ $20,456 $24,041 +$3,585 (+18%)
Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? No 91¢ 100¢ $18,260 $20,015 +$1,755 (+10%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 75¢ 61¢ $18,644 $15,250 −$3,394 (-18%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 57¢ 60¢ $14,273 $15,121 +$848 (+6%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 69¢ 88¢ $10,907 $13,840 +$2,933 (+27%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $13,398 $12,630 −$768 (-6%)
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 20¢ 43¢ $5,057 $10,591 +$5,534 (+109%)
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? No 44¢ 20¢ $22,974 $10,132 −$12,842 (-56%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes 62¢ 52¢ $8,472 $7,217 −$1,256 (-15%)
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 58¢ 68¢ $6,107 $7,196 +$1,089 (+18%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 48¢ 42¢ $6,433 $5,580 −$853 (-13%)
Will Dylan Harper win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 97¢ 100¢ $4,958 $5,108 +$150 (+3%)
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Alex de Minaur 76¢ 94¢ $3,705 $4,588 +$883 (+24%)
Will Ecuador reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 81¢ $4,463 $4,565 +$102 (+2%)
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes 70¢ 86¢ $3,655 $4,469 +$814 (+22%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 22¢ 18¢ $5,196 $4,129 −$1,067 (-21%)
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $4,196 $3,915 −$281 (-7%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 97¢ 97¢ $3,656 $3,654 −$2 (-0%)
Will Jordan Staal win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Yes 52¢ 55¢ $3,148 $3,328 +$179 (+6%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 34¢ 44¢ $2,592 $3,327 +$735 (+28%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $3,974 $3,316 −$659 (-17%)
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Tristan Boyer 86¢ 100¢ $2,790 $3,234 +$444 (+16%)
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jacob Fearnley 65¢ 66¢ $3,157 $3,165 +$8 (+0%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 9¢ 23¢ $1,087 $2,829 +$1,742 (+160%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 47¢ 81¢ $1,424 $2,473 +$1,049 (+74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $4,445 +$555 +12%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Maxim Mrva Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $1,900 +$17 +1%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $193 −$137 -71%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $225 +$25 +11%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $1,240 −$1,240 -100%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G Jun 12 $278 +$243 +87%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $233 −$133 -57%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $2,428 +$55 +2%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $1,393 −$1,266 -91%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Jun 12 $157 +$43 +27%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $975 +$1,025 +105%
Counter-Strike: Ding Cuts vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Jun 12 $52 +$148 +283%
Will Jacob Tsimerman win the 2026 Fields Medal? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -79%
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary el Jun 12 $3 +$2 +52%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 12 $441 +$117 +27%
Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal? Jun 12 $4 +$3 +62%
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-05 House seat? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +254%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2,030 −$196 -10%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we Jun 12 $102 −$2 -2%
Will Mark Hubbard finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 12 $335 −$335 -100%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $2,269 +$708 +31%
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 12 $174 −$63 -36%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs F5 Esports (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 12 $811 +$9 +1%
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playof Jun 12 $212 −$160 -76%
Will South Korea reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $319 −$11 -4%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 12 $221 −$121 -55%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $168 −$68 -41%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $1,759 −$955 -54%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $377 +$71 +19%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $2,151 +$2,765 +128%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $455 +$148 +32%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gr Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $112 −$45 -40%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $45 −$25 -56%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 12 $137 −$27 -20%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs Cloud9 (BO1) - North America Lea Jun 12 $98 −$14 -15%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $220 −$42 -19%
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $2,698 −$7 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $271 −$105 -39%
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $756 +$155 +20%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $2,718 +$1,545 +57%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $1,974 +$176 +9%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $86 +$14 +16%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $121 +$79 +65%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $22 +$3 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 47% +$1,303
sports 41% +$9,484
politics 10% +$8,198
tech 2% −$1,256
crypto 0% +$78
economics 0% +$12
world 0% +$59
culture 0% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 0m
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1m
Will Japan be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1m
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 1m
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $60 3m
Will Endrick win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 3m
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 4m
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 52¢ $1,040 13m
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ BUY OLDBOYS- 53¢ $56 21m
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY No 58¢ $3 21m
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY No 58¢ $3 22m
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY No 58¢ $17 22m
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY No 57¢ $0 27m
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY No 58¢ $11 27m
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 38¢ $264 27m
Will Ben Midgley win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary electi BUY Yes 6¢ $6 34m
Will Ben Midgley win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary electi BUY Yes 6¢ $6 34m
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo BUY Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 22¢ $2 46m
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo BUY Tristan Boyer 79¢ $7 47m
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo BUY Tristan Boyer 79¢ $72 47m
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 75¢ $1,425 47m
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 75¢ $75 47m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 75¢ $57 47m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 75¢ $19 47m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 25¢ $19 47m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 25¢ $6 47m
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 76¢ $1,520 48m
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo BUY Tristan Boyer 85¢ $684 48m
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo BUY Tristan Boyer 85¢ $166 48m
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo BUY Tristan Boyer 85¢ $850 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+42.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 194 +57.6% +42.6% 50% 39% +5.8%
≤30d 194 +57.6% +42.6% 50% 39% +5.8%
≤90d 194 +57.6% +42.6% 50% 39% +5.8%
all 194 +57.6% +42.6% 50% 39% +5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1028.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +42.6% 39% +5.8%
10% +28.9% 31% -4.3%
15% ← realistic here +16.5% 26% -13.6%
20% +5.0% 22% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $328,831.67 · official $331,171.08 (match) · 3500 history records