Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:59:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DE 0xde00…1191 crypto 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 623d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$380 (+3%) realized +$378 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate95%53W / 3L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$239per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$511now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% +$84
other 18% −$145
world 14% +$65
politics 9% +$337
tech 7% +$8
economics 6% +$31
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.5% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 4 +2.2% -7.5% 100% 0% -7.5%
≤90d 11 +2.8% -7.0% 100% 0% -7.1%
all 56 +4.9% -5.1% 95% 7% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 7% -7.0%
10% -14.2% 7% -15.9%
15% -22.5% 7% -24.1%
20% -30.1% 7% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 60% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$63 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.98 per $1 lost it wins $2.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

623d coverage
Net worth$511
Realized+$378
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses53 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)56 / 60
History coverage623d
Avg bet$239
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 95¢ 95¢ $160 $159 −$1 (-0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $155 $156 +$1 (+1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $111 $111 +$0 (+0%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $82 $84 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 19 $156 +$2 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 02 $155 +$6 +4%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 02 $170 +$2 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 02 $180 +$4 +2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 06 $130 +$3 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? May 06 $155 +$3 +2%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 06 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $200 +$9 +4%
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $111 +$6 +6%
Will Backpack launch a token on March 23? Apr 01 $140 +$5 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $160 +$6 +4%
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? Mar 13 $110 +$4 +3%
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 05 $300 −$183 -61%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the Mar 04 $70 +$2 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? Mar 04 $261 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Feb 02 $400 +$17 +4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 02 $210 +$3 +1%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting Feb 02 $155 +$1 +1%
Will Grok be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16? Jan 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 11 Jan 18 $170 +$1 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 18 $244 $0 +0%
Pepe ETF in 2025? Jan 11 $160 +$1 +0%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Jan 11 $160 +$3 +2%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 11 $571 +$3 +0%
Will Microsoft reach $705 in November? Dec 16 $150 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Dec 16 $233 +$2 +1%
Will Meta reach $870 in November? Dec 16 $250 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in November? Dec 16 $265 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 10? Nov 27 $250 +$19 +8%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 10 $170 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Nov 10 $680 +$8 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Oct 18 $600 +$28 +5%
Will Elon tweet 1500 or more times September 1–30? Sep 03 $180 +$14 +8%
Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on August 6? Sep 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Sep 03 $700 +$11 +2%
Ethereum above $2,600 on July 16? Aug 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 06 $700 +$12 +2%
Solana Up or Down on June 22? Jul 15 $17 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jul 15 $277 +$1 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash by June 30? Jul 15 $500 +$5 +1%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 14 $80 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May? Jun 14 $300 +$1 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 14 $410 +$2 +0%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? May 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? May 13 $39 +$27 +70%
Solana all time high in April? May 13 $260 +$1 +0%
X allowed to operate in China before May? May 13 $400 +$1 +0%
Manchester City wins the Premier League? Apr 16 $10 +$6 +63%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000.00 by March 31? Apr 16 $666 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 11 $600 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 98¢ $111 1h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $120 1h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 95¢ $160 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $156 22d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $155 22d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $200 22d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $180 49d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $170 49d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $155 49d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 98¢ $130 84d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $155 84d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $200 84d
Will Backpack launch a token on March 23? BUY Yes 96¢ $140 95d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $142 95d
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $111 104d
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? BUY Yes 97¢ $110 111d
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL Yes 35¢ $117 111d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 95¢ $200 112d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $160 112d
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the BUY Yes 97¢ $70 143d
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 90¢ $300 143d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? BUY No 99¢ $261 143d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $417 143d
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting BUY Yes 99¢ $155 155d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua SELL Yes 97¢ $146 155d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua BUY Yes 97¢ $210 158d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? SELL No 99¢ $244 158d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 11 BUY No 100¢ $170 164d
Will Grok be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16? BUY No 100¢ $100 164d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 99¢ $244 164d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $510.64 · official $510.64 (match) · 122 history records