Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:43:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DD 0xddfc…0509 crypto 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$72 (+3%) realized +$108 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate86%37W / 6L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 32d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$74
tech 9% +$91
other 7% −$151
politics 6% −$17
sports 5% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +3.9% -6.0% 85% 29% -12.7%
≤30d 43 +6.8% -3.4% 86% 30% -8.3%
≤90d 43 +6.8% -3.4% 86% 30% -8.3%
all 43 +6.8% -3.4% 86% 30% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 30% -8.3%
10% -12.6% 19% -17.1%
15% -21.1% 9% -25.1%
20% -28.8% 9% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$33 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized+$108
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses37 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)43 / 47
History coverage32d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? No 87¢ 83¢ $87 $83 −$4 (-5%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? No 89¢ 66¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-25%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? No 78¢ 48¢ $50 $31 −$19 (-38%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 23 $125 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$9 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $24 −$23 -95%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? Jun 23 $152 −$151 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $170 +$6 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 23 $46 +$11 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 23 $131 +$9 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 23 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $125 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$4 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $125 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $56 +$7 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$17 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $55 +$3 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $105 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$9 +178%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $50 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $15 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $35 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $35 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $69 +$88 +127%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $139 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 39m
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 45m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 48m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 49m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 50m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 51m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.19 · official $161.24 (match) · 144 history records