Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:22:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

DD 0xddfb…62fe other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$1,148 (-65%) realized −$1,131 · open −$17

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip

Net edge-100%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$118per market

Trades / day1.7pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit13%portable

Net worth$405now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	12	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	12	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	12	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -100% → late -100% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$99 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage

Net worth$405

Realized−$1,131

Unrealized−$17

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 12

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions3

Markets (closed)12 / 15

History coverage12d

Avg bet$118

Trades / day1.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	5¢	$332	$323	−$9 (-3%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	5¢	4¢	$50	$45	−$5 (-10%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$40	$37	−$3 (-8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?	Jun 22	$27	−$26	-97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$26	−$25	-97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 21	$82	−$82	-100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 21	$103	−$103	-100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 21	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$48	−$48	-100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 21	$103	−$103	-100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 21	$308	−$308	-100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 21	$178	−$178	-100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 21	$103	−$103	-100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 21	$103	−$103	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	6¢	$41	1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	5¢	$51	1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	5¢	$93	1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$27	22h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	2¢	$26	22h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	5¢	$52	22h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$48	5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	4¢	$51	5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	4¢	$48	5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	4¢	$51	5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	9¢	$103	5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	8¢	$82	5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$257	8d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	6¢	$103	8d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	3¢	$103	8d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	2¢	$103	8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$152	9d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	6¢	$178	9d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$37	10d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	11¢	$308	11d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $404.98 · official $404.98 (match) · 41 history records