Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T05:46:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xddfb…a9d6 other 43 markets active 3h ago coverage 251d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$278 (+2%) realized −$1,720 · open +$1,998
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%8W / 30L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$375per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$6,264now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$976
7 days−$979
14 days−$800
30 days−$800
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$717
sports 29% −$955
crypto 14% −$67
politics 1% −$182
economics 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-45.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -69.2% -72.1% 0% 0% -58.9%
≤30d 6 -57.6% -61.7% 17% 17% -28.9%
≤90d 23 -57.7% -61.7% 22% 22% -44.7%
all 38 -39.4% -45.1% 21% 21% -33.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.1% 21% -33.3%
10% -50.4% 18% -39.7%
15% -55.2% 18% -45.5%
20% -59.6% 16% -50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -19% → late -60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$367 vs −$182 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$6,264
Realized−$1,720
Unrealized+$1,998
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses8 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions4
Markets (closed)38 / 43
History coverage251d
Avg bet$375
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $840 $2,415 +$1,575 (+188%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,164 $2,275 +$111 (+5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,137 $1,543 +$407 (+36%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $125 $31 −$94 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1,600 −$875 -55%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $191 −$101 -53%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: C Jun 17 $32 −$16 -51%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,863 +$246 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET May 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1AM ET May 25 $181 −$181 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 25 $138 −$138 -100%
The Day: Naoya Inoue vs. Junto Nakatani May 25 $1,514 −$1,514 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10PM ET May 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET May 18 $12 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET May 17 $10 −$9 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2AM ET May 16 $267 −$267 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 16 $580 +$541 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 16 $27 +$15 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET May 16 $5 +$4 +76%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 15 $11 −$9 -82%
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? May 15 $12 −$10 -84%
Burnley FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 23 $224 −$224 -100%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 24 $163 −$155 -95%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Mar 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 24 $60 −$59 -99%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $492 −$492 -100%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 09 $26 −$4 -13%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $121 −$121 -100%
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 02 $396 −$396 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $136 +$835 +614%
Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on October 3 Oct 31 $87 −$87 -100%
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 31 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $500 +$1,136 +227%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 30 $94 −$94 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $537 −$537 -100%
Meteora FDV above $500M one day after launch? Oct 24 $51 −$47 -92%
Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch? Oct 23 $172 +$155 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $725 3h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $90 24h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $318 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $180 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $420 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $50 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $13 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $20 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,264.31 · official $6,264.31 (match) · 372 history records