Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:56:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xddfa…1ffa other 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate12%16W / 113L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$327per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$22
politics 26% −$13
sports 11% +$34
tech 4% −$2
crypto 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 93 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 129 +1.6% -8.1% 12% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 5% -9.5%
10% -16.9% 3% -18.2%
15% -24.9% 2% -26.1%
20% -32.3% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×6.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses16 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage140d
Avg bet$327
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $54 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $349 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $624 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $47 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 09 $40 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $29 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $39 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $262 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $311 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $275 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $575 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $240 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $287 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $1,208 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $335 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $268 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 16 $309 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $263 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $283 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $895 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $583 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $309 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $268 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $274 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 09 $253 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 06 $44 $0 +0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $238 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $272 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $782 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 18 $346 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $352 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $353 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $349 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $305 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $318 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $292 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,238 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $524 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $332 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $260 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $255 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 1h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $54 1h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $54 12h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 38h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 44h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 44h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $56 47h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $51 47h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $52 2d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 8d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 9d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 9d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 11d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $47 12d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $40 13d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $40 14d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $29 15d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $29 15d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $39 16d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 17d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $262 24d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $262 28d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $293 28d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $293 28d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $311 28d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $311 29d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $275 29d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $275 29d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $279 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.98 · official $42.98 (match) · 389 history records