Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:32:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DD 0xddfa…68b0 crypto 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$373 (-13%) realized −$371 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%20W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$209
7 days−$209
14 days−$209
30 days−$276
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$162
other 19% −$211
crypto 2% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -43.3% -48.7% 0% 0% -63.4%
≤30d 6 -52.8% -57.3% 0% 0% -69.2%
≤90d 6 -52.8% -57.3% 0% 0% -69.2%
all 46 -18.8% -26.5% 43% 41% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 41% -23.1%
10% -33.5% 35% -30.5%
15% -40.0% 33% -37.2%
20% -45.8% 24% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% too few recent
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$31 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized−$371
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses20 / 26
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage133d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $142 $141 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $53 $52 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $29 −$3 -9%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $68 −$3 -4%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $53 −$2 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $142 −$142 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 26 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $68 −$66 -98%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs BBL Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Pl Mar 08 $129 −$129 -100%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs BBL Esports - Map 2 Winner Mar 08 $130 −$100 -77%
Valorant: BBL Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs Mar 07 $220 +$49 +22%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winner Mar 06 $150 +$18 +12%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT Masters Santia Mar 06 $300 −$158 -53%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gentle Mates - Map 1 Winner Mar 06 $200 +$36 +18%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Play Mar 06 $379 +$84 +22%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Mar 06 $100 −$71 -70%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs T1 - Map 2 Winner Mar 04 $268 +$112 +42%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs T1 - Map 1 Winner Mar 04 $90 +$66 +74%
Valorant: NRG vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stage Mar 04 $60 +$32 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Mar 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Valorant: MIBR vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playoffs Mar 04 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Mar 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Mar 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Feb 15 $3 +$3 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Feb 15 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Feb 15 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Feb 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Feb 15 $3 +$3 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Feb 15 $2 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Feb 15 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Feb 15 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Feb 15 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Feb 15 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Feb 14 $1 −$1 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Feb 14 $1 −$1 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Feb 14 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Feb 14 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Feb 14 $3 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Feb 14 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Feb 14 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Feb 14 $1 $0 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $144 58m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $54 58m
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 59¢ $141 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $147 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $27 2h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 62¢ $0 2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 65¢ $51 2h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 62¢ $65 2h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $29 2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $53 2h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $68 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $60 37h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $142 37h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $68 27d
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs BBL Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Pl BUY FURIA Esports 29¢ $129 109d
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs BBL Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BBL Esports 14¢ $30 109d
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs BBL Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BBL Esports 61¢ $130 109d
Valorant: BBL Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs SELL NRG 100¢ $227 110d
Valorant: BBL Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs BUY NRG 44¢ $100 110d
Valorant: BBL Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs SELL NRG 22¢ $42 110d
Valorant: BBL Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs BUY NRG 64¢ $120 111d
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winner SELL Nongshim RedForce 99¢ $168 111d
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winner BUY Nongshim RedForce 88¢ $150 111d
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT Masters Santia SELL Gentle Mates 15¢ $59 111d
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT Masters Santia BUY Gentle Mates 38¢ $150 111d
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gentle Mates - Map 1 Winner SELL Nongshim RedForce 99¢ $236 111d
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gentle Mates - Map 1 Winner BUY Nongshim RedForce 84¢ $200 111d
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT Masters Santia SELL Gentle Mates 35¢ $83 111d
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT Masters Santia BUY Gentle Mates 63¢ $150 111d
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Play SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $284 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.74 · official $192.74 (match) · 107 history records