Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:23:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DD
0xddf9…6d67
politics · 43 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$152 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$176 · open −$15
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$89
Realized+$176
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses16 / 19
Open positions8
Markets (closed)35 / 43
History coverage60d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 8 History 35 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$177
14 days+$180
30 days+$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $48 $32 −$16 (-32%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $17 $26 +$8 (+49%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-18%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes 21¢ 1¢ $7 $0 −$6 (-94%)
Will Keiko Fujimori and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $14 +$2 +13%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $0 $0 -88%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $18 +$26 +140%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $140 −$110 -79%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $692 +$252 +36%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 08 $22 −$5 -22%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $284 +$22 +8%
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Jun 04 $26 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 03 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 02 $3 +$4 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 29 $58 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 27 $3 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 27 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 27 $16 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 27 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 26 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Club Alianza Lima win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $2 +$5 +224%
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? Apr 27 $9 +$54 +596%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $2 −$1 -74%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of Apr 24 $25 −$11 -46%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round Apr 24 $24 +$6 +23%
Will Keiko Fujimori and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of t Apr 21 $10 +$35 +337%
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? Apr 19 $9 +$4 +38%
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elec Apr 16 $9 +$12 +133%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in fourth place in the first round of the Apr 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Jorge Nieto finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Apr 15 $19 +$20 +107%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $15 −$3 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 86% +$204
crypto 9% −$103
other 4% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 19m
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 2¢ $0 41m
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 18h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 15¢ $2 25h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 2¢ $2 27h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 10¢ $1 28h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 11¢ $6 33h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 11¢ $3 42h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 9¢ $3 43h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 9¢ $0 43h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 10¢ $3 43h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 4¢ $2 43h
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 0¢ $0 47h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 15¢ $7 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 15¢ $0 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 81¢ $14 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 15¢ $6 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 65¢ $11 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 52¢ $18 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 30¢ $7 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 30¢ $9 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 30¢ $7 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 35¢ $7 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 11¢ $7 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 36¢ $4 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -9.9% -18.5% 56% 33% +3.8%
≤30d 24 -21.6% -29.1% 42% 21% -4.9%
≤90d 35 +10.7% +0.1% 46% 31% +0.7%
all 35 +10.7% +0.1% 46% 31% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 31% +0.7%
10% -9.4% 29% -8.9%
15% -18.2% 26% -17.7%
20% -26.2% 20% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.79 · official $88.79 (match) · 326 history records