Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:18:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DD 0xddf5…aaa3 sports 1108 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,513 (-2%) realized −$1,475 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%568W / 517L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$524est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,331now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$956
7 days−$705
14 days−$2,077
30 days−$960
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$1,709
other 2% −$402
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 168 -5.2% -14.3% 59% 58% -14.0%
≤30d 381 -3.2% -12.4% 62% 61% -12.0%
≤90d 699 -3.9% -13.1% 57% 56% -12.0%
all 1085 -3.3% -12.5% 52% 51% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 51% -12.3%
10% -20.9% 44% -20.7%
15% -28.5% 37% -28.4%
20% -35.5% 30% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$48 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$1,331
Realized−$1,475
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses568 / 517
Est. fees paid−$524
Open positions23
Markets (closed)1085 / 1108
History coverage152d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 1085 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova Susan Bandecchi 68¢ 100¢ $102 $150 +$48 (+47%)
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva Elizara Yaneva 59¢ 58¢ $112 $110 −$2 (-2%)
Will FC Barcelona win Liga Endesa? Yes 39¢ 62¢ $69 $108 +$40 (+58%)
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 68¢ 70¢ $102 $106 +$4 (+4%)
ITF Dinard: Antonia Stoyanov vs Mavie Osterreicher Antonia Stoyanov 76¢ 75¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
ITF Haskovo: Valeriia Artemeva vs Zhibek Kulambayeva Zhibek Kulambayeva 80¢ 78¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
ITF Constanta: Anas Mazdrashki vs Cezar Gabriel Papoe Anas Mazdrashki 74¢ 72¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Asuncion 2: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 76¢ 66¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Arthur Gea 51¢ 40¢ $102 $79 −$23 (-23%)
Gibson vs. Zheng: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 70¢ 84¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+20%)
ITF Tauste: Chelsea Fontenel vs Meritxell Teixido Garcia Chelsea Fontenel 75¢ 42¢ $101 $56 −$45 (-45%)
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Anna Kubareva Anna Kubareva 81¢ 98¢ $45 $55 +$10 (+21%)
Set Handicap: Vekic (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Eala 62¢ 100¢ $30 $48 +$18 (+61%)
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic Mia Ristic 54¢ 44¢ $49 $40 −$9 (-19%)
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia Yi Zhou 58¢ 56¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-3%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 45¢ 100¢ $12 $27 +$15 (+122%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 42¢ 42¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-20? Yes 32¢ 31¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Corentin Moutet 40¢ 42¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals San Diego Padres 46¢ 46¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
ITF Dinard: Milena Ciocan vs Lisa Claeys Lisa Claeys 64¢ 64¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin Svyatoslav Gulin 25¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo Jenson Brooksby 22¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Luca Van Assche Jun 17 $101 +$60 +60%
ITF San Gregorio: Kiara Nina Kucikova vs Paula Ormaechea Jun 17 $104 +$41 +40%
Set 1 Winner: Brooksby vs Cerundolo Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Klosters: Nicolas Parizzia vs Sandro Kopp Jun 17 $100 +$16 +16%
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata Jun 17 $100 +$17 +17%
ITF Mohammedia: Clarissa Blomqvist vs Nour El Ouazzani Jun 17 $100 +$12 +12%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Nina Radovanovic Jun 17 $101 +$34 +34%
ITF Mohammedia: Aran Teixido Garcia vs Carolina Kuhl Jun 17 $101 +$33 +32%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $109 +$31 +29%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Michele Ribecai Jun 17 $16 +$17 +103%
ITF Saarlouis: Yannik Kelm vs Piet Steveker Jun 17 $100 +$14 +14%
ITF Ystad: June Bjork vs Isabel Skoog Jun 17 $101 +$24 +24%
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Martyna Kubka Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
ITF Taipei: Gyeong Seo Lee vs Thasaporn Naklo Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
ITF Tauste: Meritxell Teixido Garcia vs Iveta Dapkute Jun 17 $109 −$109 -100%
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Taipei: Anchisa Chanta vs Vivian Yang Jun 17 $101 +$28 +27%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $20 +$27 +134%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $101 +$20 +20%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $100 +$12 +12%
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei Jun 16 $20 +$38 +188%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 16 $3 +$2 +46%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $40 +$25 +62%
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Jun 16 $99 +$51 +52%
ITF Monastir: Isabella De Micco Padula vs Elena Jamshidi Jun 16 $101 −$100 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Fangran Tian Jun 16 $101 +$20 +20%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $104 +$76 +72%
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur Jun 16 $104 +$116 +112%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 16 $104 −$104 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $20 +$2 +9%
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Quinn Vandecasteele Jun 16 $101 +$33 +32%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 16 $101 +$83 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Tauste: Chelsea Fontenel vs Meritxell Teixido Garcia BUY Chelsea Fontenel 75¢ $0 1h
ITF Tauste: Chelsea Fontenel vs Meritxell Teixido Garcia BUY Chelsea Fontenel 75¢ $98 1h
ITF Dinard: Antonia Stoyanov vs Mavie Osterreicher BUY Antonia Stoyanov 76¢ $101 1h
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Anna Kubareva BUY Anna Kubareva 81¢ $4 1h
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo BUY Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 68¢ $103 1h
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Anna Kubareva BUY Anna Kubareva 81¢ $41 1h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Jenson Brooksby 22¢ $31 1h
Set 1 Winner: Brooksby vs Cerundolo BUY Brooksby 21¢ $51 1h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin BUY Svyatoslav Gulin 25¢ $0 1h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin BUY Svyatoslav Gulin 25¢ $2 1h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin BUY Svyatoslav Gulin 25¢ $0 1h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin BUY Svyatoslav Gulin 25¢ $2 1h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin BUY Svyatoslav Gulin 25¢ $3 1h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin BUY Svyatoslav Gulin 25¢ $43 1h
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic BUY Mia Ristic 54¢ $3 2h
ITF Tauste: Chelsea Fontenel vs Meritxell Teixido Garcia BUY Chelsea Fontenel 75¢ $3 2h
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic BUY Mia Ristic 54¢ $3 3h
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic BUY Mia Ristic 54¢ $2 3h
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic BUY Mia Ristic 54¢ $42 3h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin SELL Svyatoslav Gulin 25¢ $90 3h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin BUY Svyatoslav Gulin 27¢ $102 3h
ITF Tauste: Chelsea Fontenel vs Meritxell Teixido Garcia BUY Chelsea Fontenel 75¢ $1 3h
Asuncion 2: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 76¢ $101 3h
Gibson vs. Zheng: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 70¢ $50 3h
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti BUY Felix Balshaw 71¢ $50 7h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Corentin Moutet 40¢ $15 7h
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Yi Zhou 58¢ $39 7h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 46¢ $15 8h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 45¢ $12 8h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Jacob Fearnley 47¢ $51 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,330.78 · official $1,311.78 · 2453 history records